German authorities seeking to map out United States supply-chain vulnerabilities as a way to win leverage with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration have identified a key pressure point: potash. The U.S. imports more than 90 percent of the key ingredient for agricultural fertilizer, leaving the world's No. 1 economy highly reliant on global producers — above all Canada.
Potash as a Strategic Lever
Potash, a potassium-rich fertilizer made from underground deposits, would be among options for U.S. allies should Trump further ratchet up trade and security threats, according to people familiar with the considerations. The U.S. president's threats to seize Greenland, a Danish territory, stunned European leaders and prompted an effort to examine how they could identify points in global supply chains where they could apply pressure, Bloomberg reported in March.
Canada's Dominant Role
Canada is by far the largest exporter to the U.S., and the country's Nutrien Ltd. is the world's largest potash producer. Another major player is K+S Group, a Kassel, Germany-based company that produces from the Bethune potash mine in the western province of Saskatchewan. German officials monitoring U.S. dependencies are looking at how companies such as K+S could be moved to scale back shipments to the U.S. in a trade conflict, the people said on condition of anonymity as deliberations took place behind closed doors.
Political and Diplomatic Considerations
German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil will travel to Canada later this week. No decision has been made on any restrictions involving potash, and Berlin's preferred avenue is to improve transatlantic relations rather than enter a tit-for-tat trade conflict that would hurt companies on both sides of the Atlantic, the people said. Spokespeople for the German and Canadian governments declined to comment. K+S didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Broader Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Sensitive areas beyond potash include action against U.S. technology companies with ties to the White House, scrutiny over artificial-intelligence investments, and drug prices, the report showed. In the agriculture sector, potash has emerged as a clear vulnerability due to the U.S.'s heavy import reliance.
Canadian Political Landscape
It's unclear how any move on potash exports would develop in Canada, which is focused on discussions with the U.S. on sectoral tariffs for steel, aluminum, cars, and lumber ahead of a review of the Canada-United-States-Mexico-Agreement, scheduled for July 1. Any restrictions would also become a political issue in Canada, where the industry is concentrated in western provinces dominated by conservative leaders. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe in late 2024 rejected a proposal to impose potential export taxes on potash, uranium, and oil. Prime Minister Mark Carney last week told The Canadian Press that his government would not use energy or critical minerals as leverage in U.S. trade talks.
Deteriorating U.S.-Germany Relations
For Germany, relations with the U.S. deteriorated over the last week after Chancellor Friedrich Merz sharply criticized the U.S.-led war on Iran, prompting a blunt response from Trump and an announcement the Pentagon would withdraw more than 5,000 American troops from the country. This backdrop underscores the complexity of any potential trade measures involving potash.
