California cattle rancher Megan Brown recently sold a bull at auction for more than she paid six years earlier, a remarkable return on an animal that produced many calves. “It boggles my mind,” said Brown, a sixth-generation rancher north of Sacramento. “I don’t think that’s ever happened in the history of the ranch.”
Record Beef Prices
Brown’s experience reflects the broader beef market. Retail beef prices are near record highs, with ground beef averaging over $7 per pound in March, up 13% from a year ago and 50% from five years ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prime ribeye cuts often exceed $20 per pound, and some Texas barbecue joints have closed due to rising brisket costs.
Ranchers Benefit, Consumers Suffer
While ranchers like Brown enjoy strong prices after years of tight margins, shoppers are feeling the pinch. The high prices pose a political problem for President Donald Trump and Republicans, who are trying to convince voters they have inflation under control. Trump recently said, “I love the inflation” when asked about rising data.
Underlying Causes
Agricultural economists say there are few quick fixes. The U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to 86.2 million head, the smallest in 75 years, due to drought, rising costs, and low prices in previous years. An invasive parasite, the New World screwworm, has also been detected in Texas, raising alarm.
“Cows are produced one at a time. It’s a slow biological process,” said Derrell Peel of Oklahoma State University. “It’s going to take several more years before we can change this appreciably.”
Consumer Demand Holds
Despite high prices, demand for beef remains strong. Brown’s direct-to-consumer business is sold out for two years. Per capita ground beef consumption is at its highest in over two decades. However, some restaurateurs have limits. Shawn Jones closed Kirby’s BBQ near Houston due to rising brisket costs, saying customers couldn’t justify the expense.
The Trump administration’s plan to allow more Argentine beef imports faced industry pushback and was shelved. Economists say it would have had minimal impact on prices anyway.
Brown, who kept her heifers this spring, predicts good years ahead for ranchers and a new normal for shoppers. “Maybe now we went too far in the other direction, but I don’t know if we’ll ever go back,” she said.
