Fresh data from the Bitcoin options market indicates a surge in trader optimism, with many setting their sights on a return to the US$100,000 price level. This bullish sentiment follows a significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market during the final quarter of 2025.
Options Market Signals a Bullish Shift
According to data from Coinbase Global Inc.'s Deribit derivatives exchange, open interest—the number of outstanding contracts—is heavily concentrated in call options with a strike price of US$100,000 that expire on January 30, 2026. The notional value of these contracts is more than double that of the next most popular option, which are put contracts at an US$80,000 strike price with the same expiry date.
"Size isn't enormous, but direction is consistent—and builds on the large US$100,000 strike interest flagged last week," noted Jake Ostrovskis, head of over-the-counter trading at Wintermute. He added that the market appears to be moving away from expecting the worst downside activity, with conditions firming up slightly.
Recovery Gains Momentum After Q4 Crash
This marks a notable change from the late-2025 crypto rout, which was characterized by persistent spot market selling and expensive protections against further declines. Bitcoin's price action reflects this shift, with the digital asset rising as much as 3.6% to US$94,494 recently, nearing a one-month high. This comes after Bitcoin fell 24% in the fourth quarter of 2025, closing the year at US$87,648. The cryptocurrency last touched the US$100,000 mark on November 14, 2025.
The rebound is supported by a reversal in capital flows. Investment products for both Bitcoin and Ether saw significant inflows on January 2, 2026, of US$471 million and US$174 million respectively, according to Wintermute. This level of demand was last observed in November, preceding a market crash in early October that wiped out approximately US$19 billion in digital assets in a single day.
Broader Market Context and Future Targets
Bitcoin's rise coincides with rallies in other asset classes, including record highs for gold and strength in equity markets, particularly tech stocks. Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, suggested this creates a good opportunity to buy upside Bitcoin calls, noting the market is waking up to Bitcoin lagging behind precious metals.
However, analysts caution that the path may not be smooth. Bitcoin faced several failed attempts to break through key resistance levels in recent months, met with swift pullbacks and liquidations. Constant selling pressure and a lack of recovery in speculative crypto derivatives contributed to a prolonged market slump.
Satraj Bambra, CEO of hybrid exchange Rails, stated that a retest of the US$100,000 to US$106,000 range is not out of the question, which is common in bearish setups. For a truly bullish trend to be confirmed, Bambra believes Bitcoin would need to reclaim and hold above US$106,000 on a weekly basis. Magadini's analysis of option positioning suggests a potential quick rally through the US$90,000s, with the next significant resistance point around US$105,000.
