Calgary's economy is positioned to outperform the national average next year, with new projections indicating robust growth despite facing significant economic headwinds from trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
Strong Economic Performance Amid Challenges
The latest economic outlook from Calgary Economic Development, released in November 2025, forecasts the city's GDP will grow by 2.4 percent in 2026, substantially higher than the projected national average of 1.3 percent for Canada. This growth comes as the city navigates complex challenges including trade wars, geopolitical instability, and shifting domestic policies.
Mark Parsons, chief economist with ATB Financial, emphasized that Calgary's economic resilience stems from meaningful diversification efforts. "It's been a very difficult and long journey to see diversification in the Calgary economy," Parsons noted in an interview. "What we're seeing in the last three years, especially, is that it truly is happening."
Beyond Oil: The Diversification Story
While oil and gas remain the dominant economic engine for both Calgary and Alberta, the city has made significant strides in developing other sectors. According to Parsons, technology, aviation, and food manufacturing industries have shown substantial growth across Alberta in recent years.
The technology sector, in particular, has experienced remarkable expansion in Calgary. Data from commercial real estate firm CBRE reveals that tech employment surged by 61 percent between 2021 and 2024, reaching more than 64,000 jobs. This represents one of the strongest growth areas in the city's evolving economic landscape.
Brad Parry, CEO of Calgary Economic Development, stressed in a media release that while the city's economy demonstrates resilience, "we cannot afford complacency heading into next year." He emphasized the need to "stay focused on market diversification, building capacity within our local innovation landscape and giving Calgary businesses the tools to grow, hire and compete globally."
Population Growth and Employment Outlook
Alberta's population surge has played a crucial role in supporting economic activity, though the pace of growth is slowing. Parsons noted that population increases "is supporting everything from consumer spending to housing activity," even as growth moderates from previous highs.
The city's unemployment rate, currently at 7.9 percent, is expected to remain around seven percent next year. This reflects ongoing adjustments in the labor market as the economy continues its transformation.
Parsons highlighted the broader context of Alberta's economic journey, noting that "the Alberta economy has, over the last decade, had to adjust to much lower levels of investment, and that's been really challenging. It takes time for other sectors to fill that gap."
Despite the challenges posed by international trade tensions, Parsons expressed confidence in Calgary's position: "I'd say Alberta, and Calgary in particular, is weathering the storm better than most."
