Leading financial institutions are forecasting a significant rebound in merger and acquisition activity within the clean energy sector for 2026. This anticipated revival is attributed to a strengthening outlook for global electricity demand and a convergence of expectations regarding the valuation of renewable energy assets.
Dealmakers See Perfect Conditions for a Deal Wave
Executives from major financial players, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Brookfield Asset Management, and Nuveen Infrastructure, have identified the potential for a fresh wave of transactions at the project level. They point to several converging factors creating a more favourable environment than the previous year.
The explosive growth of data centers, alongside other power-intensive industries, is providing new, robust support for renewable energy generation. Furthermore, key market uncertainties that plagued 2025—such as energy policy direction, international tariffs, and the trajectory of interest rates—have begun to stabilize, offering greater clarity for investors.
Greg Zdun, JPMorgan’s Asia Pacific head of energy transition and natural resources, stated plainly: “Expect more mergers and acquisitions for renewable assets in 2026 as developers or sellers of projects and companies become more realistic in terms of valuation.”
Recovery from a Subdued 2025
This predicted upswing follows a notably quiet period for clean energy deals. The sector largely missed out on a banner year for global M&A in 2025, when the overall value of transactions surpassed US$4.5 trillion, marking the second-best tally on record.
In stark contrast, activity in renewables was muted. Data compiled by BloombergNEF shows that completed acquisitions of individual assets or project portfolios across solar, wind, and energy storage totaled just 55.3 gigawatts of capacity last year. This figure represents the lowest annual total since 2017. Similarly, the value of completed company-level deals in renewable energy fell to its lowest point since 2020.
The slowdown was partly driven by a broader hesitation in the private equity exit market, fueled by uncertainty and volatility stemming from U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump. This environment led to a dramatic compression in deal premiums. The average premium in transactions involving renewable energy companies plummeted to about 12 per cent in 2025, down sharply from 46 per cent a year earlier.
Market Fluidity Returns as Confidence Grows
Now, a shift is underway. Asset owners, who struggled to complete project sales throughout much of last year, are increasingly prepared to adjust their price expectations downward. Concurrently, buyers are demonstrating a renewed willingness to pay for clean energy generation capacity, seeing long-term value.
Joost Bergsma, Global Head of Clean Energy at Nuveen Infrastructure, shared his firm's experience. When Nuveen began attempting to exit assets from its 850 million euro European fund a couple of years ago, engagement was low. “People weren’t really engaging, not because our assets were bad, it’s just they were just keeping their powder dry a little,” Bergsma explained. He now observes, “Slowly we’re starting to see a little bit more confidence, and also the exit market starts to be a bit more fluid in the clean energy space.” Nuveen is currently in talks over potential deals for wind assets in Europe.
Analysts support this optimistic view. A report from TD Cowen suggested this decade is shaping up to be “a period of unprecedented visibility” for renewables. This is due to greater policy certainty, particularly the continued availability of safe-harbor rules for tax credits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in the United States.
The fundamental demand driver remains powerful. The International Energy Agency forecasts that renewable energy, with solar leading the charge, will grow faster than any other major source of electricity generation through 2035. This growth is propelled by an anticipated at least 40 per cent increase in global electricity demand, driven largely by the adoption of data centers, electric vehicles, and air conditioning. Market sentiment reflects this, with the S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index advancing almost six per cent in early 2026, extending gains following a substantial 44 per cent surge in 2025.
