In a world of shifting political winds, the fundamental relationship between Canada and the United States remains a constant, argues renowned author and demographer Joel Kotkin. Writing in early 2026, Kotkin suggests that while the political noise surrounding figures like Donald Trump dominates headlines, the deeper economic and social convergence between the two nations demands a focus on sustained cooperation.
The Elephant and Its Neighbour: An Enduring Reality
Kotkin invokes the famous 1969 analogy by former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, who described living next to the U.S. as "sleeping with an elephant," affected by every twitch and grunt. The author posits that this dynamic persists, regardless of who occupies the White House. The United States, as the world's leading fossil fuel producer and a military and technological superpower, continues to cast a long shadow over its northern neighbour. This interdependence, Kotkin stresses, is the bedrock of the relationship that transcends any single administration.
Converging Challenges: From Demographics to Discontent
The article highlights a series of parallel challenges facing both nations, creating a shared context for policy. Both Canada and the U.S. are experiencing aging populations and shrinking native-born birthrates, leading to a recalibration of mass immigration policies. Kotkin notes that even under Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada has adopted a more restrictive stance on immigration, mirroring, albeit less aggressively, shifts seen in the U.S.
Furthermore, societal issues show remarkable alignment. Kotkin cites a recent Oxford study indicating that Canadians under 30, once the happiest demographic 15 years ago, are now the least happy, mirroring youthful disillusionment in America. Declining educational results, a crisis in housing affordability locking younger generations out of homeownership, and fading upward mobility—documented in a Montreal Economic Institute study showing Alberta faring best and Quebec worst—are common plights. This shared economic anxiety, Kotkin suggests, fuels a turn toward more radical political solutions on both sides of the border.
A Post-Trump Landscape and Shared Policy Shifts
While Kotkin observes that Donald Trump's direct influence is waning as he becomes a "lame duck" president, the impacts of his era are ingrained. Notably, Kotkin points to a significant shift in Canada's resource policy. He writes that Mark Carney, previously a champion of climate-focused industrial policy, has now rediscovered the critical importance of Canada's oil and gas resources. This pragmatic turn towards natural resource development echoes a broader North American realignment on energy security and economic fundamentals, a shift initially accelerated by Trump's policies.
The pervasive influence of global tech oligarchs, a "bowdlerized" regional culture due to mass media, and a poisoned political discourse are additional challenges Kotkin identifies as common to both countries. The conclusion is clear: the solutions to these intertwined dilemmas must be collaborative. The economies are inextricably linked, the language and culture are broadly shared, and the lessons—such as the realization that mass, unregulated immigration is not a panacea for economic stagnation—are being learned in tandem.
Kotkin's analysis serves as a reminder that beyond the daily political theatre, the Canada-U.S. relationship is defined by profound and enduring structural ties. The future prosperity and stability of both nations, he implies, depend not on isolation or rhetoric, but on recognizing this convergence and forging a cooperative path forward.
