Prime Minister Mark Carney is leveraging a landmark energy agreement with Alberta to forge a new strategic path in Canada's often fraught trade relationship with the United States. The deal, announced in late November 2025, includes plans for a crucial oil pipeline to the West Coast, aiming to open Asian markets and reduce reliance on the U.S.
A New Bargaining Chip in Trade Talks
The central question in Ottawa and Washington is whether this plan will influence the trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. Analysts suggest that creating an alternative export route could provide Canada with much-needed leverage.
"If I were the United States, I’d have a little bit of fear of missing out and that would incentivize me to negotiate," said Heather Exner-Pirot, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. She cautions, however, that understanding the calculations within the current White House remains challenging.
The economic rationale is clear: diversifying markets means U.S. buyers would have to compete with Asian demand, potentially securing a better price for Canadian oil. Martha Hall Findlay, director of the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary, concurs, stating that more export options should ultimately strengthen Canada-U.S. trade relations.
Washington Takes Note of Canadian Resolve
The strategy is garnering attention south of the border. Andrew Hale, a senior policy analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington, believes a West Coast pipeline could significantly alter the dynamic.
"I think that would be massive," Hale stated. He explained it would allow Canada to push back more firmly, telling the Trump administration that pairing tariffs on Canadian goods with demands to align against China is unreasonable. Hale noted a growing sentiment among Canadians that they have accommodated U.S. requests without reciprocal benefits.
He emphasized that swiftly constructing the pipeline would make a strong impression in Washington, signaling Canada's seriousness about pursuing independent options.
More Than a Pipeline: A Geopolitical Pivot
Proponents view the West Coast route as complementary to existing U.S. exports, not a replacement. It aims to tap into Asian demand demonstrated by the Trans Mountain expansion (TMX), with goals of boosting GDP and doubling non-U.S. energy exports by 2035.
Heather Exner-Pirot frames the initiative within a broader global shift. As influence moves toward the Pacific, she sees an opportunity for Canada to build new alliances by providing reliable energy and food to partners like India, Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia.
The meeting between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in Calgary on November 27, 2025, solidified this federal-provincial strategy. While the potential for increased clout in trade negotiations is clear, significant hurdles remain, primarily whether the ambitious pipeline project will proceed from plan to reality.
