As the year draws to a close, Alberta's homebuilding sector is powering towards what experts predict will be a record-shattering year, potentially leading the nation in new housing construction. The key question is whether the province can surpass the high bar it set just last year.
Economist Confident in Record-Breaking Year
The answer from ATB economist Siddhartha Bhattacharya is an emphatic "Yes." He stated, "Oh, 100 per cent. There's no question about that. And we are definitely going to average over 55,000 units this year."
According to a recent ATB report, housing starts are on a pace to begin an average of 58,072 homes this year. This calculation, which extrapolates monthly starts to an annual figure, shows a significant rebound from September's rate of 54,652 units. Even that slower September pace was substantially higher than the previous annual record of 46,632 units set last year.
Depleted Inventory Fuels Construction Boom
Industry leaders point to a massive influx of new residents as the primary driver behind this construction surge. Katrina Rowe, president of homebuilder Cantiro Communities, explained the market dynamics. "I think what happened over the last few years, the market was so active, we had so many people moving to Alberta, so many people buying houses, that inventory levels got really depleted. And so in 2024 and 2025 starts have been incredibly high as we try to get back to carrying normal amounts of housing inventory," she said.
Market Activity Remains Strong Despite New Supply
Despite the flood of new home inventory entering the market from last year's record construction and this year's promising outlook, Edmonton realtor Wendy Theberge reports that market activity shows no signs of slowing down.
"Anecdotally, the market is just chugging along with loads of new homebuyers buying pre-owned homes," said Theberge, a realtor with ReMax Elite in Edmonton. She noted that many of her clients are prioritizing location and convenience over new construction, often seeking older homes in established, mature neighbourhoods rather than properties that are "shiny and new."
While the intense activity persists, the increased supply appears to be having a moderating effect on price growth. Theberge observed that as population growth in the province has eased, home prices have begun to stabilize. However, competitive bidding situations with multiple offers on listed properties remain a common occurrence in the Alberta housing market.
