Calgary's residential real estate market, which has experienced a recent cooling period, is projected to see a rebound in home prices by 2026, according to new industry forecasts. While sales activity may remain flat in the near term, the city's relative affordability continues to position it favorably within the national landscape.
Market Forecast: A Return to Growth
A Royal LePage forecast indicates that the average aggregate price for all housing types in Calgary is expected to grow by 1.5 per cent by the end of 2026, reaching $701,061. This projected increase signals a potential end to the recent price softening observed in the resale market.
Corinne Lyall, broker/owner of Royal LePage Benchmark in Calgary, contextualizes the current market phase. "The past year has been down, but it’s down from the post-COVID high when the market had very little inventory," she explains. Statistics from the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) show that by mid-December, year-to-date resales were down more than 15 per cent, though the average price had still gained about three per cent to $629,032.
A Tale of Two Markets: Detached Homes vs. Condos
The forecast reveals a divergence between housing segments. Single-family detached homes are predicted to show more strength, with prices expected to increase by three per cent to $828,429 by the end of 2026. In contrast, the condominium market is anticipated to be softer, with a more modest price gain of one per cent to $265,832.
This disparity is driven by inventory levels. "It’s a tale of two markets," says Lyall. "In the condo market... there is about five and a half months of inventory, which is more leaning towards the buyer." Conversely, single-family detached homes had a supply of just under three months, with row and semi-detached homes also around three months, as per November CREB data. Lyall notes that competitive offers are common in mature neighborhoods with limited inventory, while newer areas face more price pressure from new construction.
Contrasting Outlooks and National Affordability
While Royal LePage predicts price growth, the Re/Max 2026 Housing Market Outlook presents a different near-term view, forecasting no growth for sales and prices in Calgary by the end of next year. It suggests the market will be balanced or may slightly favor buyers.
Despite this, Alberta's advantage in affordability remains a key theme. "Calgary still leads the major markets in terms of affordability," states Don Kottick, president of Re/Max Canada. This stands in stark contrast to forecasts for Vancouver and Toronto, where prices are expected to fall by two and 3.5 per cent, respectively, in part because average prices exceeding $1 million continue to sideline many first-time buyers.
The data underscores a pivotal moment for Calgary's housing sector. After a period of correction from record highs, the market is poised for a measured recovery by 2026, with its enduring affordability acting as a fundamental pillar of stability compared to Canada's most expensive urban centers.
