The federal government's recent budget presentation has raised serious concerns among housing industry professionals who claim the official numbers don't reflect the stark reality facing Canada's real estate market.
Questionable Data in Federal Budget
When the 2025 Federal Budget was released on November 4, a single line on page 44 immediately caught the attention of housing experts: "Home sales have risen in five of the past six months." This optimistic statement has left industry insiders puzzled, as it contradicts the severe downturn they're witnessing across major urban centers nationwide.
According to decades of tracking by third-party agencies, the actual numbers paint a much bleaker picture. Year-to-date new home sales have declined dramatically compared to the 10-year average across Canada's largest municipalities.
The Real Numbers Tell a Different Story
The data reveals alarming declines in both single-family and condominium apartment sales. In the Greater Toronto Area, sales have plummeted by 82%, while the Greater Golden Horseshoe region saw an 81% drop. Vancouver experienced a 67% decrease, with Calgary and Edmonton down 40% and 33% respectively. Montreal's condominium apartment sales fell by 75%.
This isn't merely a temporary market adjustment but represents a severe downturn that began in the GTA over two years ago and has now spread to all housing types in every major Canadian market.
Data Interpretation Problem
The discrepancy appears to stem from how the federal government defines "home sales." The budget seems to be using data that includes total sales, incorporating resale homes rather than focusing exclusively on new home sales. This approach creates a misleadingly positive picture that doesn't align with the government's own commitment to build 500,000 new homes annually.
"You simply cannot track progress toward that goal using data from existing homes that were built 10, 20, or 50 years ago," notes one industry expert. If the objective is to increase supply for Canada's growing population and support construction sector jobs, the focus must be on net new construction.
Future Consequences of Current Trends
The budget's assertion that "forward-looking indicators point to broadly balanced market conditions at the national level" raises additional concerns. New home sales today directly influence housing starts in the future, typically with a 1.5 to 3-year lag. Current sales declines represent an industry-wide slowdown that threatens to deepen the housing supply gap for years to come.
Every delayed project today means fewer homes being started and completed in the future, exacerbating the very crisis the government claims to be addressing.
Real-World Impact of Statistical Interpretation
When the federal government assures Canadians that markets are "broadly balanced," it creates a false sense of security that undermines the urgency needed to address the crisis. Meanwhile, homebuilders face a starkly different reality: evaporating sales, suspended projects, ongoing layoffs, and drying financing.
Every indicator from the new home market points to a deepening crisis rather than the stability suggested by federal budget documents. The statistical interpretation has real consequences for policy decisions and public perception of one of Canada's most pressing issues.
