Ontarians Flee GTA for Affordable Housing in Other Provinces
Amid warnings from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation that major markets like Toronto are failing to build homes fast enough to meet escalating demand, a growing number of Ontarians are packing up and moving outside the Greater Toronto Area and even to other provinces in pursuit of better housing affordability. This trend is reshaping demographic patterns and raising alarms about the long-term economic vitality of the region.
Accelerating Outmigration from the GTA
Justin Sherwood, chief operating officer at the Building Industry and Land Development Association, confirms that outmigration from the GTA is not only happening but accelerating at a concerning pace. Recent Ministry of Finance population data revealed that Toronto's population declined in 2025 for the first time in decades, a stark indicator of the housing crisis's impact.
"That is a serious warning sign," Sherwood emphasizes. "When young workers and young families are forced to leave the GTA in search of housing, it raises real concerns about the region's long-term social and economic vitality – and this should be a wake-up call to policy makers."
Statistics Canada reports that Ontario lost 6,154 residents due to interprovincial migration from April through June last year alone. The province has reportedly experienced the largest net exodus of all provinces for nearly four consecutive years, highlighting a sustained shift in population dynamics driven by affordability pressures.
Financial Considerations for Interprovincial Moves
While moving for affordability can make financial sense, Victor Tran, a mortgage and real estate expert at Rates.ca, cautions that buying a house in another province is not always as straightforward as it may seem. He has observed a significant uptick in interprovincial relocation among Ontarians, particularly since the pandemic, and offers critical advice for those considering such a move.
Mortgage Pre-Approval: Tran strongly recommends securing pre-approval early in the process. "Mortgage pre-approvals are critical when buying in another province. Lenders may require additional documentation or have different income and employment verification standards," he explains. "Unfortunately, most people will look for a home first, make an offer to purchase, and then worry about the financing, when it should be the other way around."
Lenders meticulously assess employment, income, and credit ratings. For remote workers retaining their current employer, proof of employment is essential. Those seeking new employment will face additional scrutiny, which can complicate the financing process.
Practical Challenges and Solutions
Some individuals opt to rent in another province initially and purchase a home after settling in. However, for those planning to buy immediately, Tran advises looking beyond the sticker price to account for the full cost of moving. This includes:
- Transportation expenses
- Temporary housing if necessary
- Tax and closing costs
Planning for a slower sale in Ontario is also crucial. "We're seeing 'For Sale' signs sitting for months in many different neighborhoods across the GTA," Tran notes. "If you're relying on equity from the sale of your home as the main source of down payment for the new purchase, you may not be able to purchase and relocate immediately."
Bridge Loans: If the sale of your current home hasn't closed but you have a firm sale in place, lenders may accept proof of incoming funds for the down payment. If your new home closes before the sale of your current property, you might qualify for a bridge loan to cover the down payment, though these typically carry interest rates four to five per cent above the prime rate.
Mortgage Renewal Dates: Paying attention to your mortgage's renewal date is "crucial because penalties could be involved if you need to break a mortgage or if you need to transfer a current mortgage to the new property in the new city," Tran warns. Starting early and understanding lender policies on porting or transferring mortgages can mitigate these risks.
Budgeting for Hidden Costs
Tran emphasizes the importance of budgeting for closing costs and property tax variations, which differ significantly by province and municipality. "Legal fees, land transfer taxes, and property tax rates differ by province and even by municipality," he says. "Knowing these costs upfront helps buyers avoid surprises and plan their total budget more accurately."
For example, in the City of Toronto, buyers must pay both a provincial and a municipal land transfer tax, whereas Alberta imposes no land transfer tax at all. Selling a property in Ontario and buying in another province typically requires two sets of legal fees—one for the sale and another for the purchase—adding to the overall financial burden.
Regional Disparities in Housing Construction
The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation's Fall 2025 Housing Supply Report highlights stark regional disparities in new home construction. Cities like Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Ottawa, and Halifax built new homes at record or near-record paces or in line with historical averages in the first half of 2025.
In contrast, Canada's two most expensive housing markets painted a grim picture. Vancouver experienced a slowdown in housing construction compared to 2024, while Toronto was on pace for its lowest annual housing starts total in 30 years, exacerbating the affordability crisis and fueling the outmigration trend.
As Ontarians continue to seek refuge in more affordable provinces, experts urge careful financial planning and policy intervention to address the root causes of this demographic shift, which threatens to undermine the economic foundation of the GTA and beyond.
