Canada's spring housing market has gotten off to a sluggish start, with economic and geopolitical uncertainty, along with the lingering effects of a long and snowy winter, shouldering the blame. However, activity has begun to pick up, according to a recent report from Royal LePage.
Factors Behind the Slow Start
In a typical spring, Canada's housing market would already be gaining momentum, but persistently low consumer confidence remains a drag on activity, especially in the most expensive markets, says Royal LePage President and CEO Phil Soper. Three factors figure prominently in today's sluggish market: hesitant first-time buyers, a return to sell-before-buy behaviour, and limited inventory in several key markets.
First-time buyers are the engine of the housing market, and when they pause, it ripples through every segment. Move-up buyers are also taking a more measured approach, often choosing to sell before committing to their next purchase—a behaviour not seen in years. In some regions, however, the issue is not demand but supply.
Survey Highlights
According to a survey conducted by the Bank of Canada in the fourth quarter of 2025, 29 per cent of Canadians said they were likely to move within the next 12 months, up from 22 per cent a year earlier. Similarly, 20 per cent of homeowners said they were likely to sell their home within the next year, up from 14 per cent.
Ottawa Market Overview
The Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast found that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa decreased a modest 0.5 per cent year over year to $775,800 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price increased slightly by 0.6 per cent. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.9 per cent year over year to $882,200, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.6 per cent to $400,500 during the same period.
Buyers remain active, particularly at more affordable price points, but they are taking more time and approaching decisions more cautiously, says Jason Ralph, broker and owner of Royal LePage Team Realty. Pricing has remained relatively stable overall, with modest recent gains since the start of the year suggesting early signs of strengthening as the spring season progresses.
Looking ahead, Ralph anticipates a busier spring market that will help offset the slower start to the year. Inventory levels remain higher than in recent years, giving buyers more choice and keeping the market in balanced territory, while prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the months ahead. Royal LePage is forecasting the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase two per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.
HST Rebate Impact
The decision by the provincial and federal governments to eliminate the 13 per cent HST on the purchase of new homes could influence how buyers compare new builds with resale properties in markets where both options are available, says Victor Tran, mortgage and real estate expert at Rates.ca.
