Toronto homeowners could see a slightly lower property tax increase this year, with city councillor and mayoral candidate Brad Bradford predicting the hike will be under five percent. The figure is expected to be tabled as part of the city's draft budget on Thursday, January 8, 2026.
Prediction Points to a "Number Starting with a 4"
Speaking to the Toronto Sun on Wednesday, Councillor Brad Bradford forecasted the upcoming increase. "It will be a number that starts with a 4, that's my prediction," he stated, based on speculation. He anticipates Mayor Olivia Chow will utilize reserve funds to keep the rate down, a strategy he criticized as "burning the furniture to heat the house." Bradford argued these accounts should be reserved for extraordinary circumstances, not for political pathways to re-election.
A Trend of Historic Tax Hikes Under Scrutiny
Bradford placed the expected increase in the context of recent years, highlighting what he calls the three largest tax increases in Toronto's history since amalgamation. He ranked them as: Mayor Olivia Chow's 9.5% increase in 2024, followed by Mayor John Tory's 7% in 2023, and Chow's 6.9% increase in 2025. "Between the Tory and Chow administrations, taxes have gone through the roof in this city and Torontonians are feeling it in their wallets," Bradford asserted.
He contrasted the current administration's approach with the last core service review of city divisions, which was conducted under Mayor Rob Ford in 2012. Bradford has long called for a similar review to find efficiencies and manage the budget better.
Budget Process Unfolds Ahead of October Election
The budget discussion occurs months before the October municipal election, where Mayor Olivia Chow is expected to run for re-election and Brad Bradford is a declared candidate. While Bradford plans to fight the property tax increase at council, he doesn't expect a prolonged debate on Thursday, describing the session as the bureaucratic kickoff to the budget process.
He expressed skepticism that residents would be pleased with an increase still projected to be two to two-and-a-half times the rate of inflation. "She wants us all to be grateful for that and I just think that's ridiculous," Bradford said of the mayor. He criticized rising city spending, growing staffing complements, and expensive collective bargaining agreements, concluding, "You're actually paying more and you are getting less in Mayor Chow's Toronto."
The version released Thursday is a staff-prepared draft directed by the mayor. It will be debated by the budget committee and undergo public consultations throughout January. Mayor Chow must formally introduce her version of the budget by February 1, with a final council vote scheduled for February 10.
