In an exceptionally rare show of agreement, every single Wall Street strategist surveyed is forecasting that the U.S. stock market will continue its ascent in 2026. This would mark a fourth consecutive year of gains, a winning streak not seen in nearly two decades.
A Historic Lockstep of Optimism
The survey, conducted by Bloomberg News, polled 21 prognosticators from major banks and boutique investment firms. Not one of them predicted a decline for the S&P 500 Index next year. The average year-end target implies an additional gain of approximately nine percent, extending a bull run that has already propelled the benchmark index up roughly 90 percent since its low point in October 2022.
This unanimous bullishness follows three years where the market's powerful performance repeatedly proved bearish predictions wrong. Veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni, a longtime bull himself who projects the S&P 500 reaching 7,700 by the end of 2026, even finds the lack of dissent somewhat concerning. "The pessimists have just been wrong for so long that people are kind of tired of that schtick," Yardeni noted. "That's where my counter instincts come out... Pessimism is on the out right now."
Navigating Volatility and Uncertainty
The path to this consensus was far from smooth. The year 2025 delivered significant volatility, testing forecasters' resolve. An early-year selloff, triggered by concerns over AI competition from firms like DeepSeek and the unfolding trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, sent the S&P 500 tumbling nearly 20 percent toward bear market territory between mid-February and early April.
In response, strategists slashed their year-end targets at the fastest pace since the COVID-19 crash. However, the market staged one of its swiftest recoveries since the 1950s, forcing analysts to reverse course and raise their forecasts once again. This rollercoaster highlighted the challenges of prediction in an era defined by economic resilience, geopolitical shifts, and technological disruption.
"It's tricky because I think there's been a great amount of uncertainty in the last five years, and particularly this year," said Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler & Co. His firm has abandoned the practice of publishing a single year-end S&P 500 target. "When there's a lot of uncertainty, investors are very myopic and reactive to different data points and it doesn't take much to change the opinion and consensus."
Risks Looming Over the Bull Run
Despite the overwhelming optimism, analysts acknowledge several substantial risks that could derail the projected rally. The ongoing artificial intelligence investment boom, which has heavily fueled gains in mega-cap technology stocks, could potentially falter. The U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions might defy current expectations. Furthermore, the second year of Donald Trump's presidency could introduce new, unanticipated policy shocks beyond those witnessed in 2025.
The market's performance has been increasingly concentrated, with five major technology giants accounting for nearly half of the S&P 500's advance this year. This concentration, driven by massive investments in AI infrastructure and chips, adds another layer of vulnerability to the broader market's health.
Ultimately, the lockstep bullish call for 2026 represents both a triumph of the ongoing market momentum and a potential contrarian warning sign. For Canadian investors monitoring Wall Street's direction, the message is clear: the professional forecasters see clear skies ahead, but they are also nervously watching the horizon for storms.
