Canadian Travel to U.S. Plummets 30% Amid Trade Tensions, Statistics Canada Reports
Statistics Canada has released new data showing a dramatic 30% decline in Canadian travel to the United States in February 2026 compared to the pre-tariff period. The figures highlight how ongoing trade tensions between the two nations are reshaping cross-border travel patterns.
Sharp Decline in Cross-Border Travel
According to the data agency's Tuesday report, return trips to the U.S. by Canadian residents fell by 31.5% in February 2026 compared to February 2024. This significant drop underscores the erosion of travel habits caused by the trade dispute.
On a year-over-year basis, the decline was also substantial. Return car trips from the U.S. by Canadians decreased by 12.9% in February, while air travel saw an even steeper drop of 17.6%.
"In February last year, we were right in the middle of the bad feelings, and people were still changing their vacation plans and their travel plans at that point," said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Economics. "The comparison with two years ago helps to provide a fuller picture of how Canadian attitudes are changing."
Shift Toward Overseas Destinations
The data suggests Canadians are not simply traveling less but are redirecting their travel plans away from the United States. Trips overseas by Canadian residents via air increased by 7.2% in February compared to a year ago.
For the second consecutive month, the number of overseas trips taken by air exceeded those to the U.S. by car—1.3 million versus one million.
"What really stands out is that it's not as if Canadians aren't traveling," Porter noted. "When you look at the number of trips abroad, they're still quite, quite strong."
Background of Trade Tensions
The travel decline follows U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff war against Canada, which began on February 1, 2025. The initial measures included a 25% tariff on Canadian products (excluding energy, which faced a 10% levy). The order was paused for 30 days before taking full effect on March 4.
Trump's verbal attacks on Canada, including suggestions that it should become the 51st state, further angered Canadians and fueled anti-American sentiment.
Airlines Adjust Routes
Several airlines have responded to the changing travel patterns by cutting back routes to the United States. WestJet Airlines announced in February that it would cancel routes to 10 U.S. cities this summer. Air Transat AT Inc. and Air Canada have also made similar route reductions.
Porter explained that travel levels have rebounded from the "extreme lows that they hit around the middle part of last year, but are still way, way down from pre-tariff war levels."
Increased Inbound Tourism to Canada
While Canadians are traveling less to the U.S., Canada is seeing increased visitor numbers. U.S. resident trips to Canada rose by 6.1% in February from a year ago, with automobile trips up 6.4% and air travel increasing by 4.9%.
Canada also attracted more visitors from overseas, with trips rising by 10.5% in February compared to a year ago.
Porter suggested multiple factors might be driving this trend: "Canada could be attracting overseas travellers not just as an anti-Trump play, but because the Canadian dollar is low."
He added that while the Canadian dollar has recovered somewhat over the past year, at approximately 73 cents against the U.S. dollar, it remains historically weak and also trails currencies like the euro.
Economic Factors at Play
Porter also pointed to domestic economic conditions as contributing to the travel decline. "Job growth is next to zero. The economy struggled to grow last year," he said. "Consumers are cautious."
This economic caution appears to be particularly affecting car travel to the U.S., which requires more discretionary spending than air travel to overseas destinations.
The Statistics Canada report provides clear evidence that trade tensions have fundamentally altered travel patterns between the two neighboring countries, with Canadians increasingly looking beyond their southern border for international travel experiences.
