As the United States moves deeper into 2026, a pivotal question resurfaces in political circles: Is the Republican Party destined to follow the path of the long-defunct Whig Party? This query, frequently posed during Donald Trump's first presidential term, is gaining renewed urgency one year into his second administration, according to columnist Jonah Goldberg.
A Monolithic Administration and a Unified Front
Goldberg argues that the political landscape has shifted dramatically since Trump's initial tenure. During the first term, Trump's divisive personality often split the Republican base, while policy was shaped through compromise between MAGA loyalists and traditional party figures like Senators Mitch McConnell and Mitt Romney. Landmark actions, such as the 2017 tax reform and Russia sanctions, emerged from this tug-of-war.
Today, the dynamic is inverted. The Trump administration is described as "monolithically MAGA," bound not by a cohesive ideology but by unwavering personal and political loyalty to the president himself. This fealty is now a non-negotiable requirement in Republican primaries, with approximately nine out of ten party members approving of Trump despite his historically low ratings with the broader public.
Beneath the Surface: A Coalition Cracked by Issues
While loyalty to Trump provides a unifying surface, Goldberg identifies profound fractures within the Republican coalition on critical policy matters. Key divisions are emerging on trade, the war in Ukraine, U.S. support for Israel, abortion, and even aspects of immigration policy.
Some splits are generational, while others are driven by the "new entrants" Trump brought into the party fold. A recent Manhattan Institute survey highlighted a stark contrast, finding these new voters are three times more likely to believe in conspiracy theories compared to traditional Republicans (34% vs. 11%).
The Ghost of the Whigs and a Lesson from History
The comparison to the Whig Party, which collapsed in the 1850s, is instructive. The Whigs formed primarily in opposition to the domineering presidency of Andrew Jackson, whom critics dubbed "King Andrew the First." Their coalition held together through opposition to Jackson but disintegrated after he left office, fatally divided over the single issue of slavery.
Goldberg draws a parallel: Trump's polarizing force currently unites his party, much as Jackson did for the Whigs. However, the columnist suggests that Trump's unique brand of popularity is not easily transferable. He points to efforts to anoint Vice-President JD Vance as the next MAGA standard-bearer as evidence of a desperate realization that the coalition may not survive Trump's eventual departure from politics.
"When he goes the way of Andrew Jackson, those divisions will remain," Goldberg writes, noting that Trump's singular "purity test" of loyalty has papered over deep ideological rifts.
A Fragile Future for Both Sides of the Aisle
The analysis concludes that while no single issue like slavery exists to tear apart a modern party, and the two-party system presents high barriers for new entrants, both major American coalitions appear vulnerable. The Republican coalition, built on personal loyalty, faces an existential test in a post-Trump era. Simultaneously, the Democratic coalition is also fractured, with a major internal division being whether party leaders are resisting Trump sufficiently.
As 2026 progresses, Goldberg posits that the current structures of both the Republican and Democratic parties look too fragile to survive the post-Trump political era intact. The coming years will test whether the GOP can evolve beyond its current incarnation or if history will, in some form, repeat itself.
