The 2025 Canadian federal election has upended a long-standing political trend, presenting the Conservative Party of Canada with a fresh and critical challenge. While centre-right parties across North America traditionally count on strong support from older demographics, the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre have seen this reliable base erode, according to a new analysis.
A Reversed Age Divide in Canadian Politics
Post-election survey data from Abacus Data illustrates a dramatic shift. The Conservative Party successfully expanded its coalition by attracting younger voters, particularly those aged 30 to 44, who were motivated by issues like housing affordability, job security, and economic mobility. This strategy yielded significant seat gains in areas once considered unwinnable for the party.
However, this success came with a notable cost. Many older voters abandoned the Conservatives for the Liberals in the 2025 election. Under Prime Minister Mark Carney, the Liberal vote share among seniors surged by 19 percentage points compared to the party's 2021 result.
The Persistent Gap and Its Drivers
This trend has not only persisted but intensified since the election. A mid-December Abacus poll showed the Conservatives with just 31% support among voters aged 60 and over, trailing far behind the Liberals at 53%. Remarkably, the Conservatives now lead in every other age group, including those aged 18 to 29.
Several factors are driving this generational split:
- Party Evolution: Over the past decade, the Conservatives have adopted a more ideologically confident and unapologetic stance, amplified by a growing ecosystem of conservative media and commentators focused on younger Canadians' concerns.
- Issue Prioritization: The party's emphasis on housing affordability and labour market instability—existential issues for younger voters—holds less appeal for older homeowners and retirees, for whom rising home values represent asset growth.
- Strategic Messaging: The Liberals successfully linked longstanding anxieties about former U.S. President Donald Trump to Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative brand, a tactic that resonated strongly with voters who remember earlier periods of Canada-U.S. tension.
The Electoral Map Reflects the Shift
The consequences of this demographic realignment were clear on election day. The Conservatives lost seats in traditional retirement destinations like Kelowna while making gains in younger, dynamic regions such as the Kitchener-Waterloo area and in working-class ridings like Elmwood-Transcona. The election also produced a new cohort of young Conservative MPs eager to advocate for the interests of their generation.
The central challenge now facing the Conservative Party is clear. While building a powerful new coalition with younger Canadians, it must find a way to re-engage the senior voters who were once a cornerstone of its support. Bridging this generational divide will be essential for securing future electoral victories.
