A major political transformation is underway in Quebec as the province heads toward a pivotal general election on October 5, 2026. The race for premier became dramatically more unpredictable following the announcement by Premier François Legault that he will step down as leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ).
A Sudden Exit and a Leadership Void
Legault, 68, declared his departure at a hastily called news conference, bringing an end to 28 years in provincial politics. He stated he would remain premier until the party he founded in 2011 selects a new leader. This move follows a tumultuous 2025 where, despite initially launching a campaign for a third mandate, the CAQ's declining fortunes made the political reality untenable.
His resignation avoids the risk of the October election becoming a referendum on his leadership. As noted by Le Devoir columnist Michel David, while many Quebecers desired his exit, it has "created an immense void in the political landscape." Legault's goal of securing a third consecutive majority government—a feat not achieved since Maurice Duplessis—is now left for a successor to pursue.
The Scramble to Succeed Legault
The CAQ has immediately launched its first-ever leadership contest. Key cabinet ministers are considered potential candidates, including:
- Municipal Affairs Minister Geneviève Guilbault
- Economy Minister Christine Fréchette
- Finance Minister Eric Girard
- Education Minister Sonia LeBel
- Environment Minister Bernard Drainville
- International Affairs Minister Christopher Skeete
The party aims to crown a new leader potentially by April 2026, recognizing the tight timeline before the fixed-date election. However, the new leader will inherit significant challenges: the CAQ is languishing in the polls, faces a critical report on the SAAQclic scandal due February 13, and must repair relations with doctors and labour unions alienated under Legault's watch.
Ripple Effects Across the Political Spectrum
Legault's exit fundamentally alters the dynamics for all parties. The Parti Québécois (PQ), currently leading in polls, has benefited from anti-Legault sentiment. With their main opponent gone, PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, 48, will face intense scrutiny, especially regarding his pledge to hold a sovereignty referendum in a first mandate. The imminent release of the PQ's sovereignty blueprint will be a key test.
The Quebec Liberal Party is also in transition, following the December resignation of leader Pablo Rodriguez. A leadership race is underway, with former chamber of commerce president Charles Milliard as the front-runner. The party must also navigate ongoing investigations into alleged fundraising irregularities during its previous leadership contest.
For Québec solidaire (QS), the election is a battle for relevance. The left-wing party has been rocked by internal criticism and the departures of prominent figures like Manon Massé and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois. Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime faces the urgent task of winning his party's first seat in the legislature after failing in two byelections.
A New Generation Takes the Stage
Legault's departure accelerates a generational shift in Quebec politics. The likely new leaders of the CAQ and Liberals, alongside PQ's St-Pierre Plamondon (48) and QS's co-spokespersons Ruba Ghazal (48) and Sol Zanetti (43), signal a changing of the guard. The political battle will now test the durability of Legault's "third option"—a coalition beyond the traditional federalist-sovereigntist divide—without its architect.
As pollster Philippe J. Fournier warned in L’actualité, Quebecers should "hang on to their tuques" for a thrilling and highly unpredictable election year. The National Assembly resumes sitting on February 3, with a pending byelection in Chicoutimi offering the first test of the new political terrain.
