A fresh public opinion survey indicates Premier François Legault's attempts to revitalize his Coalition Avenir Québec government ahead of the next provincial election are falling flat. The CAQ is entering 2026 mired in the same voter dissatisfaction that plagued it at the close of 2025.
Polling Numbers Paint a Bleak Picture for the CAQ
The poll, conducted by Pallas Data for The Walrus on January 9-10, surveyed 1,128 people and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The results show the Parti Québécois maintaining a healthy lead with 34% support, though this marks a two-point dip from the firm's previous poll in November.
In second place are the Quebec Liberals at 24% support, a position they hold despite internal turmoil and the December resignation of their leader, Pablo Rodriguez. The Quebec Conservatives follow in third with 16%.
Most critically for the governing party, the CAQ finds itself tied for fourth place with Québec solidaire, each garnering only 11% of voter support.
Legault's Pre-Holiday Push Fails to Resonate
These disappointing figures come despite a concerted effort by Premier Legault to reset his government's narrative before the holiday break. In the weeks leading up to Christmas, he executed a cabinet shuffle, unveiled a new economic vision, and successfully negotiated a deal with Quebec's disgruntled doctors.
These moves were clearly designed to polish the government's image and demonstrate renewed momentum. However, the latest polling data suggests these actions have not moved the needle with the electorate.
"For Legault, the disastrous figures observed this fall simply continued into the winter, with no improvement in sight," wrote polling analyst Philippe J. Fournier of Qc125 in his assessment of the survey.
The Road to the October 2026 Election
With the next general election scheduled for October 2026, the CAQ has limited time to reverse its fortunes. The persistent strength of the Parti Québécois, coupled with the resilience of the Liberal vote and the rise of the Conservatives, creates a complex and challenging political landscape for the incumbent premier.
The poll underscores a significant disconnect between the government's recent policy and personnel maneuvers and the perceptions of Quebec voters. As the election year progresses, the pressure will mount on François Legault and the CAQ to find a message that resonates, or risk being overtaken by surging rivals.
