CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten on Sunday stressed that Democrats are in the “strongest position” in decades, as polling suggests party members are more “certain to vote” than Republicans in November.
Historic Position Ahead of Midterms
“I dare say it’s a historic position heading into a midterm election,” Enten said in a clip shared to CNN’s YouTube channel.
The data chief teed up his argument by highlighting polling that “really just jumps off the screen”: Consumer sentiment, or a combination of current and future economic outlook, hit an all-time low last month, per the University of Michigan.
Enten added that the figure is “fueling” Democrats “on the most simple of questions” in the polls: Which party do you identify with?
On that question, Democrats — at this point in the midterm cycle — hold a lead of 13 percentage points over Republicans when independents who lean toward one party or the other are brought into the equation, per Gallup.
That Democratic lead tops that of 2006, when the party “easily” took back the U.S. House and gained six Senate seats that November, Enten stressed.
And, with the party faring better than the GOP by 7 percentage points on a generic House ballot, Enten argued that Democrats are “running well ahead” of numbers needed to control the House in the face of redistricting battles.
Voter Enthusiasm Gap
Later in the segment, he pointed to ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos polling showing that 75% of Democrats (and those who lean that way) are “certain” they’ll vote in November while 67% of Republicans (and those leaning GOP) indicated the same.
“Republicans have historically been the ones who are more likely to turn out and vote,” he began.
“But as that Democratic anger has risen with what’s going on in Washington ... as the Democratic coalition has become more tilted toward college-educated voters who are more likely to turn out, this is the first midterm cycle at this point in the cycle — that I can find — in which Democrats say they are more likely to turn out and vote than Republicans.”
“So again, that is supercharging. That is supercharging what that Democratic lead actually is on the generic ballot,” Enten concluded.
