Despite Conservative Defections, Liberal Majority Remains Elusive in Parliament
Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party have gained additional parliamentary seats through recent Conservative defections, yet a secure majority in the House of Commons continues to evade them. Following the 2025 election, the Liberals initially held 169 seats, requiring 172 for a technical majority in the 343-seat chamber.
Recent Floor-Crossings and Seat Count
In November 2025, Nova Scotia MP Chris d'Entremont crossed from the Conservatives to the Liberals, increasing their total to 170. This number proved sufficient to pass the budget with some opposition abstentions. On December 11, Markham-Unionville MP Michael Ma followed suit, bringing the count to 171.
Last week, Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux became the latest Conservative to join the Liberal fold, announced by the prime minister on February 18, 2026. However, this gain coincides with complications that keep the majority dream uncertain.
Complications and Parliamentary Mathematics
The Supreme Court recently overturned the 2025 election result in Quebec's Terrebonne riding, which the Liberals had apparently won by a single vote. This vacates the seat immediately, removing it from the Liberal tally.
With Jeneroux's addition and replacements for former MPs Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair (who left the Commons early in the new year), the Liberals would return to 171 seats after necessary by-elections. A win in Terrebonne would bring them to 172, but this presents another challenge.
The Speaker of the House, the Hon. Francis Scarpaleggia, counts among those 172 seats. In tied votes, he must use his casting vote impartially according to established principles of neutrality. The Speaker cannot break a tie to change the status quo and make new law; in pass/fail scenarios, he is expected to abstain effectively voting nay.
This parliamentary esoterica means the Liberals would be unable to change standing orders to secure majority representation on Commons committees, which would grant them near-total control of the parliamentary agenda.
Additional Variables and Future Scenarios
The situation remains fluid. Another Conservative defector might emerge, or a New Democrat crossing to the Liberals could provide the crucial 173rd MP if Terrebonne is won. However, complications extend beyond simple arithmetic.
Current Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith intends to run for a vacant provincial parliament seat in Scarborough-Southwest. He seeks to replace NDP MPP Doly Begum, who has been chosen as the federal Liberal nominee to replace Bill Blair in the Commons seat for Scarborough-Southwest. If Erskine-Smith wins the provincial by-election, whose timing is determined by Premier Doug Ford, he would resign from the Commons, creating another uncertain Liberal seat.
As political observers update their scorecards, the path to a stable Liberal majority remains fraught with parliamentary complexities and unpredictable developments.
