In a striking analysis on Tuesday, CNN's senior data reporter Harry Enten emphasized the unusual and chaotic state of the Democratic Party's early preparations for the 2028 presidential election, pointing to a significant lack of a clear frontrunner among potential candidates. Enten described the situation as "very unusual," highlighting that this marks the first time in over three decades that no Democratic hopeful has reached 25% in early polling, a stark contrast to past cycles.
Polling Data Reveals a Crowded Field
According to a recent Yahoo/YouGov survey, California Governor Gavin Newsom leads the pack of potential Democratic candidates, with 19% of registered Democrats and party-leaning voters selecting him as their top choice for the nominee. However, this figure falls short of the traditional benchmark for early frontrunners. Former Vice President Kamala Harris trails closely behind at 18%, a number that Enten characterized as "weak" given her status as the 2024 nominee.
Further down the list, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg follows with 13%, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York notches 12%. Notably, 19% of voters indicated uncertainty about their preferred nominee, adding to the fragmented landscape. Enten stressed, "This is just a total clown car. It is a total mess," underscoring the disorderly nature of the race at this early stage.
Historical Context and Comparisons
Enten provided historical context, noting that in previous election cycles without an incumbent at this point, candidates like Al Gore in 2000 and 2004, Hillary Clinton in 2008 and 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020 all polled at 25% or more as early frontrunners. The current scenario, with no candidate hitting that threshold since 1992, represents a significant departure from the norm. CNN anchor John Berman added that it has been a "long time" since the Democratic Party has seen a race with such ambiguity, further emphasizing the rarity of this situation.
Shifting Interest in Key Candidates
Later in the segment, Enten discussed potential reasons for the lack of a dominant figure, suggesting that interest in Governor Newsom may be waning. He pointed to data showing that Google searches for Newsom dropped by 63% since peaking in August, possibly linked to his social media campaign trolling former President Donald Trump last year. Enten remarked, "There was a lot of interest from Democratic voters, but maybe that interest is waning off just a little bit," cautioning that it might be too early for such a decline given the time remaining before the election.
Overall, the analysis paints a picture of a Democratic Party in flux, with no clear path to the nomination yet visible. As Enten concluded, "Who the heck knows who the nominee is going to be in two years?" reflecting the widespread uncertainty and competitive nature of the upcoming race.
