Polls are not like a weather forecast. We cannot do anything about the weather. If the prediction is rain, the only thing to do is prepare for it. Polls measure public sentiment, but that sentiment can be influenced.
Current polling seems to justify handwringing among Republicans regarding the outlook for November. RealClear Polling's latest general congressional poll shows Democrats leading Republicans 47.9% to 40.3%. However, it is not the weather. We have months left, and this can be influenced.
The State of the Nation
The overall sentiment in the country is not good. RealClear Polling shows 33.8% saying the country is going in the "right direction" and 60.1% saying it is on the "wrong track." Regarding party favorability, the unhappiness is evenly distributed: Democrats stand at 36.7% favorable, 55.5% unfavorable; Republicans at 38.3% favorable, 56.1% unfavorable.
Let us separate some wheat from the chaff. The general congressional poll before the 2024 elections favored Republicans, 50.6% to 47.9% for Democrats. However, the overall sentiment regarding the state of the country was almost exactly as it is today. RealClear Polling in November 2024 showed 62.7% saying the country is on the wrong track and 26.0% saying it is in the right direction.
Long-Term Trends
Gallup polling on national satisfaction goes back further than RealClear. Looking at that, the last time more than 50% of Americans said they were satisfied with the direction of the country was 2001, 25 years ago. For the last quarter-century, Americans on average have felt there is more wrong in the country than right.
The latest Gallup polling asked, "What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?" Topping the list at 26% was "government/congress/politicians." Number two at 15% was inflation. Americans know the symptoms of their problems, but also, in their heart of hearts, they know the source.
Citizens sense a sclerosis that has set in, and that the cause is massive growth of government and politics. In the half-century from 1950 to 2000, average real annual growth in GDP per capita was 2.4% per year. Over the last quarter-century, from 2000 to the present, this annual average growth has dropped to 1.4% per year.
The Cost of Big Government
What has happened? In 1950, per the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, federal spending consumed 14.2% of GDP. In 2025, this was up to 22.8%. In the last quarter of 1970, federal debt held by the public stood at 26.8% of GDP. In the last quarter of 2025, it stood at 98.2%. More and more government, and more and more debt to finance it.
Turning the economic resources of the country over to government is called socialism. It is not a matter of ideology to reject it. It is a matter of reality. It does not work and never has.
The Choice Ahead
Back to Republicans and Democrats. Over the years, there has been reason to complain that some Republicans have been too willing to go along with the growth of government and insufficiently bold in pushing back. But the difference between Republicans and Democrats, even in the worst case, is that we have a chance of solving the problem with Republicans. We still have Republican leaders who understand what our country is about and the importance of keeping our citizens and our markets free and dynamic.
With Democrats, the chance is zero. And it is getting worse. Increasing numbers in that party are progressives who openly embrace socialism. This is the message that must be delivered in every race. Every American voter must understand what lies at the root of our problems today: the compromise of the core American principle of limited government. And every voter must know that every Democrat sent to Washington will hurt America.
