There is zero chance, absolutely none, that separatist leaders will kick Premier Danielle Smith out of office and take over the United Conservative Party. That is the simple truth, despite the noise and threats from those who oppose her approach.
Separatists are going after the premier because they do not like her referendum question and her embrace of federalism, Alberta style. However, this situation is nothing like the challenges that eventually drove former premier Jason Kenney from office in 2022.
Smith's popularity vs. Kenney's downfall
The ghost of Kenney's shattered leadership hovers over any challenge, naturally. It showed that even a powerful premier can be run off by his party. In fact, the memory of Kenney's fate is the only thing that gives the current separatist campaign any credibility.
Kenney was a hero to the right and swept away the NDP in the 2019 election. Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, the prime driver of Kenney's fall, although not the only one. He fell in line with health restrictions that infuriated a wide range of UCP supporters, especially in rural areas. Kenney was trying to stem a pandemic that killed nearly 6,000 Albertans.
But the deadly political forces were in play long before Kenney was pushed out. On April 6, 2021, 17 MLAs released a letter challenging Kenney. They said: “After 13 painstaking months of COVID-19 public health restrictions, we do not support the additional restrictions imposed on Albertans.” MLA Drew Barnes piloted the letter. He and Todd Loewen were expelled from caucus. Most MLAs rallied behind Kenney but the stage was set.
The next year was an escalating uprising. More than 22 riding associations signed calls for a leadership vote. Shortly before that fatal night, Red Deer MLA Jason Stephan told the legislature: “Some say unity requires you to follow the leader, but Mr. Speaker, what if you’re being led over a cliff? Should you follow like a lemming? No.” He is the same MLA who recently urged Albertans to sign the separatist petition. Stephan subsequently exited his post as parliamentary secretary for constitutional affairs.
In contrast, Smith is popular with her MLAs and many others in the party, while Kenney was unpopular at the end. The separatist movement against Smith lacks the widespread support that brought down Kenney. Smith is taking obvious steps to keep separatists out of riding nominations and UCP board positions, further solidifying her control.
Ultimately, the separatist campaign has no credible path to toppling Smith or winning control of the UCP. The party remains firmly behind its leader, and the separatists' influence is waning as reality sets in.
