Trump's Unfulfilled Energy Price Promise: A 50% Cut That Never Materialized
When President Donald Trump visits Texas on Friday to tout his energy policies, he may conveniently overlook a bold campaign promise he made while seeking a return to the White House. In August 2024, at a campaign stop in Pennsylvania, Trump declared, "Energy costs, all of it, air conditioning, heating, all of it, including gasoline, will drop by more than 50% within the first 12 months." The following month in North Carolina, he reinforced this pledge, stating, "Under the Trump economic plan, we will cut your energy prices in half. Mark it down, you can get very angry at me if we don't do it."
Broken Promises and Rising Costs
Those who marked it down are likely angry, if not enraged, as Trump has completely failed to deliver on what was, even at the time, an outlandish promise. According to a HuffPost analysis of federal data, not a single energy-related commodity, including those Trump specifically mentioned during the campaign, costs half as much as it did a year ago. Sarah Longwell, a Republican political consultant who conducts focus groups with Trump voters, noted that the failure to reduce energy costs is just one aspect of why many have become disenchanted with him. "It's groceries, healthcare, childcare, energy, education, housing, et cetera. Voters talk about all of them," she said. "It was the number one issue Trump was hired to fix, and voters not only think he is failing but also that he's not prioritizing the issue."
Data Reveals Significant Price Increases
Federal figures compiled by the St. Louis Federal Reserve show that electricity costs have risen more than 7% from the time Trump took office through last month. Heating oil saw a slight increase of half a percentage point, while natural gas prices soared by a whopping 87% year over year. Overall, the Fed's "household energy" price index increased by 6.6%. University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers commented on Trump's promise, stating, "He lied. Also, this isn't something presidents can do. He knows this."
White House Response and Continued Misinformation
The Trump White House did not respond to HuffPost queries about the broken energy price promise. Instead, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers falsely claimed that energy costs were decreasing and attacked the policies of Trump's Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden. "Unfortunately, left-wing governors and legislatures in blue states are still doubling down on Joe Biden's failed and costly 'Green New Scam' policies, which are inflating energy prices and hurting families. If these elected officials abandon their failed approach and embrace the president's energy dominance agenda, their constituents would see lower costs as well," she said. Trump himself, as he often does, has continued to falsely assert that energy costs are down, including during his recent State of the Union address, where he confusingly stated, "Nobody can believe when they see the kind of numbers and especially energy, when they see energy going down to numbers like that."
Gasoline: A Misleading Indicator
Trump and his aides frequently point to gasoline prices as evidence of his success, likely because it is the only energy commodity that has decreased in price during his first year back in office. According to federal data, gasoline prices fell by 9.6% in the year since Trump took office, a decline many analysts attribute to the OPEC cartel increasing its crude oil production last year. However, this decrease continued a longer-term decline that began under Biden in late summer 2022. Moreover, gas prices have started to increase again in recent weeks, as they typically do after the winter holidays, erasing nearly half of the price drop from Trump's first year. Matt Randolph, a longtime oil industry executive, noted, "This is just a continuance of what was already happening."
Global Markets and Policy Impacts
Economists emphasize that oil is a global commodity, meaning even drastically increased domestic production would not significantly alter the prices gasoline refiners pay. Justin Wolfers explained, "Energy is traded on global markets. So reducing the cost of energy means that he would have to add enough supply to push down global prices. The U.S. isn't big enough to do that. But you know what would help? Allowing wind turbines to spin. Solar to be collected, et cetera." Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama White House and now a professor at Harvard University, agreed that Trump's gutting of wind and solar programs in Biden's Inflation Reduction Act has contributed to higher electricity prices. "Their big action was repealing energy credits from IRA which raised costs," he said.
Political Context and Upcoming Events
Trump's visit to the oil export hub of Corpus Christi, Texas, is part of a tour hyped by his aides to highlight his purported focus on affordability. This stop comes just days before Texas holds its primary elections, and much of Trump's appearance may focus on promoting GOP candidates he has endorsed. Despite the fanfare, the data clearly shows that his grand energy price promise remains unfulfilled, leaving voters to grapple with the reality of rising costs across multiple essential commodities.
