China Condemns U.S. Assault on Iran but Direct Arms Supply Unlikely
China has publicly criticized the United States for its military strike on Iran, which resulted in the death of Iran's supreme leader and has severely depleted the country's missile reserves. However, there are few signs that Beijing will directly supply arms to bolster Iran's defenses, despite ongoing speculation.
Limited Public Support from Beijing
Following the attack by former U.S. President Donald Trump, China's Foreign Ministry dismissed reports that Beijing was preparing to provide Iran with supersonic anti-ship missiles, labeling such claims as "not true." China's public support has been confined to condemning the U.S. action, with no evidence of Chinese weapons being deployed on the battlefield, unlike in recent conflicts such as the Thai-Cambodia border war or the India-Pakistan dispute.
China's Ministry of Defense did not respond to requests for comment on the matter. Analysts note that while China is not a major arms supplier to Iran, it does provide dual-use technology—items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. This support is limited by international sanctions and Beijing's diplomatic considerations with Sunni Gulf states and Israel.
Iran's Reliance on Drones and Potential Russian Partnership
In the conflict, Iran's retaliation has heavily relied on waves of small, unsophisticated Shahed-136 attack drones, which have targeted U.S. bases, oil infrastructure, and civilian buildings. The outcome may hinge on which side exhausts its munitions first. As Iran's missile stockpile dwindles, one likely partner for support is Russia, which has historically maintained friendly ties with Tehran.
A Pentagon report from last year highlighted that China's defense relationship with Iran is now focused on Chinese companies selling dual-use components for Iran's ballistic missile and drone programs. This is complemented by annual trilateral naval exercises with Russia, although such exercises have not been publicly held this year, along with limited bilateral military training.
Historical Context and Sanctions Constraints
China officially ceased selling weapons to Iran after 2005, following a United Nations Security Council resolution that established a de facto embargo on certain items and technology related to nuclear weapons. Before that, Beijing had supplied Iran with a range of missiles, aircraft, and artillery, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Direct weapon sales from China to Iran are also deterred by U.S. sanctions. However, the supply of dual-use items offers a cover of deniability, aligning with Beijing's approach in its dealings with Russia. Despite being the world's fourth-largest arms exporter, China has avoided selling arms to countries sanctioned by the U.S., including its "no-limits" partner Russia, though it continues to provide dual-use components.
Russia's Role and Regional Dynamics
Russian President Vladimir Putin has leveraged his relationship with Beijing to circumvent Western sanctions and acquire components for drone production, used in attacks on Ukraine. Iran previously supplied Russia with Shahed-136 drones early in the war and shared technology, enabling Moscow to manufacture them domestically under the name "Geran-2" as part of a $1.75 billion contract signed in 2023.
As the situation evolves, Iran's ability to sustain its defense may increasingly depend on such international partnerships, with China playing a cautious role focused on diplomatic criticism and indirect support rather than direct arms supply.
