Recent turbulent events in Iran are illuminating a significant shift in American foreign policy under President Donald Trump, according to commentator Conrad Black. Black argues that Trump has developed a new range of aggressive-responsive policy options, moving decisively away from what he terms the obsolete framework followed by most of his predecessors for eight decades.
The Roosevelt Doctrine and Its Long Shadow
Black traces the old framework back to President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1941. In his January State of the Union address, Roosevelt warned against the "'ism' of appeasement." Following the attack on Pearl Harbor in December, he vowed to ensure such treachery would never endanger the nation again. For 80 years, Black notes, subsequent presidents adhered to these principles: the U.S. avoided appeasement and maintained military might so formidable that no country dared a direct attack.
However, America's adversaries eventually adapted. Unable to challenge the superpower head-on, they turned to asymmetric warfare. This included luring the United States into guerrilla wars and combat quagmires, like Vietnam, where traditional battle lines blurred. Later, they employed terrorism and narco-terrorism—methods that, while anonymous, proved cumulatively draining even for a nation of immense power.
Historical Lessons: Vietnam and the Terrorist Shift
Black revisits the Vietnam War as a prime example of strategic failure. He contends President Lyndon Johnson ignored crucial advice from Generals Douglas MacArthur and Dwight Eisenhower, who warned against committing ground forces to mainland Asia. Their suggested alternative, had deployment been necessary, was to extend the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) across Laos, cut the Ho Chi Minh Trail, and empower the South Vietnamese to secure their own country.
President Richard Nixon's "Vietnamization" policy later followed this blueprint and showed promise, Black asserts. He argues South Vietnam might have survived had congressional Democrats not cut off aid in the wake of Watergate, effectively delivering the country to the North.
The painful lesson, according to Black, was to avoid another large-scale, open-ended guerrilla war. America's enemies then escalated to outright terrorism, with attacks escalating from the Marine barracks in Lebanon and the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia to the U.S. embassies in East Africa, the USS Cole, and ultimately the catastrophic September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon.
Trump's New Paradigm: Force Without Folly
Conrad Black posits that President Trump has forged a new path in response to this evolved threat landscape. The core of this approach, as Black sees it, is the advancement of American interests without putting American lives at undue risk. He contrasts this with the protracted conflicts of the past, suggesting Trump's methods are more surgical and economically focused.
Black points to the U.S. response to 9/11 and the 1991 Gulf War—which expelled Saddam Hussein from Kuwait at a cost of 292 Allied dead versus over 200,000 Iraqi casualties—as examples of more direct, successful applications of force. He implies that Trump's handling of the Iran situation fits within this newer, more calculated model of statecraft, one that responds aggressively to threats but avoids the troop-intensive stalemates of previous generations.
In conclusion, Black presents the events in Iran as a case study revealing a transformative moment in U.S. foreign policy. He frames President Trump's strategy as a formidable break from an 80-year tradition, designed to navigate a world where adversaries operate through shadow wars and terrorism, all while prioritizing the security of American personnel.
