Canada's Non-Permanent Resident Population to Drop to 5% by 2027, PBO Reports
Canada is on track to reduce its non-permanent resident population to less than 5% of the total population by the end of 2027, according to a new report from the Parliamentary Budget Office. The analysis, released on Thursday, examines the demographic implications of the federal government's 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan.
Significant Reductions in Arrival Targets
Parliamentary Budget Officer Matthew McGoey anticipates that the number of non-permanent residents allowed into Canada will continue to fall sharply, continuing a downward trend that began in 2024. The report specifically notes that arrival targets are being lowered significantly, particularly for international students.
The PBO projects that the non-permanent resident share of Canada's total population will decline from a peak of 7.6% in 2024 to just under 5% by the end of 2027, meeting the government's stated target. This represents a substantial shift in Canada's immigration approach following years of record-high population growth.
Permanent Resident Admissions to Stabilize
The report stems from Ottawa's announcement about the Immigration Levels Plan in the November federal budget, as well as the 2025 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration. According to the projections, permanent resident admissions will stabilize at 380,000 annually from 2026 through 2028.
This represents approximately a 20% reduction relative to the record-high 484,000 admissions in 2024. Meanwhile, Ottawa has introduced new initiatives aimed at accelerating the transition of 148,000 current non-permanent residents to permanent resident status over 2026 and 2027.
Addressing Infrastructure Pressures
The primary aim behind Ottawa's policy shift has been to relieve pressure on housing, health care, and other essential services. National Post has previously reported on a TD Economics analysis indicating that reducing incoming immigration has already begun easing pressure on social and economic infrastructure.
This demographic adjustment will inevitably impact Canada's overall population growth. The PBO projects population growth will pick up modestly to 0.3% in 2027 and stabilize around 0.8% annually over the medium-term. This is below the pre-2015 average of 1.1% per year.
Changing Sources of Population Growth
Over time, the sources of Canada's population growth have shifted significantly. While immigration has become the primary driver in recent years, births minus deaths have made a shrinking contribution due to low fertility rates and an aging population. It's important to note that a significant proportion of permanent resident admissions represent individuals already in Canada as non-permanent residents who were granted permanent status.
Non-permanent migration has been the primary driver of recent population dynamics. Net inflows of non-permanent residents beginning in 2016 pushed annual population growth above 1%. Following a pandemic-related dip in 2020, net inflows surged to nearly 800,000 in 2023, driving total population growth in that year to a record-high 1.2 million, or 3.1%.
However, 2024 changes in government policy translated into significantly reduced net inflows of non-permanent residents. These changes included a cap on study permits and stricter rules affecting Temporary Foreign Workers, marking a substantial shift in Canada's approach to population management and immigration policy.
