After winning a record third consecutive majority mandate just a year ago, Premier Doug Ford has earned the right to determine his own departure date from Ontario politics. Yet that certainty does little to quell the speculation swirling around Queen's Park this summer about whether he will stay or go.
The Three Ways Out of Politics
Political exits come in only three forms: losing an election, dying in office, or quitting. Losing while pursuing a worthy goal is more noble than quitting, but losing simply because one holds on too long is the ultimate vanity, according to political observers.
Former premier David Peterson famously said he left politics for health reasons, joking that the people got sick of him. That illness apparently caused delusion, and the electorate chose Bob Rae as his successor.
Dalton McGuinty resigned when it became obvious it was time to go, as did former prime minister Justin Trudeau. In both cases, a new leader overcame negative polls and retained power for their party.
The Exception of Voluntary Departure
With a few notable exceptions, most leaders hold on too long. The reasons boil down to hubris—believing you are irreplaceable or simply better than the alternatives means you richly deserve the trouncing that inevitably follows.
The exceptions are instructive. Both former Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall and former Ontario premier Mike Harris resigned with plenty of political capital remaining. Both could have—and likely would have—won the next election, but each made the tough decision to leave. Neither was fleeing scandal; both left party coffers flush and polls favorable. They decided their contribution was complete and it was time to pass the torch. That is a remarkably adult decision.
Interestingly, neither Wall nor Harris seems preoccupied with defending their legacy. Both are content knowing they did their best and are happily pursuing other ambitions, free of the bitterness that haunts many former politicians.
Knowing When You Have Enough
Lao Tzu observed that true wealth lies in knowing when you have enough. Most politicians never seem to get enough adulation, respect, or power, leaving them perpetually impoverished. It does not take a genius to predict that when Donald Trump leaves the White House, he will be a bitter man with a long list of grievances.
This context frames Doug Ford's long summer. When first elected, he could not wait to enter the legislature. His Progressive Conservative government was ill-prepared and made a series of self-inflicted errors. By the end of that first year, the government appeared on track to defeat itself.
Now, after three majority victories, the government is reluctant to open the Legislative Assembly. It will be late fall before Ford again faces his opposition. There is apparently no urgency in legislating, but is there urgency in reinvigorating the leadership? Ford has already spent more time in the premier's office than most. This long summer, he needs to determine how and when he will leave it.
