Calgary could play a decisive role in Alberta's upcoming referendum on separation, as political observers note that the city's swing voters may determine the final level of support. Both separatist and pro-Canada groups are intensifying their efforts to rally support ahead of the vote scheduled for October 19.
Referendum Questions and Stakes
Albertans will head to the polls to vote on ten referendum questions, including one that asks whether the province should remain in Canada or initiate the process toward a binding vote on separation. Pollster Janet Brown emphasized that campaigns effectively connecting with swing voters in Calgary could significantly influence the margin of support for the separation movement.
Based on current polling, Brown stated it is hard to imagine separatists securing a majority vote, but support could range from as low as 20 percent to as high as 40 percent. That is what this election is about, she said. Do we have a big but insufficient number for separation, or do we have a very small number for separation? That is where swing voters in Calgary could make the difference.
Calgary as the Political Sweet Spot
Brown describes Alberta's political landscape as a three-legged stool consisting of Edmonton, Calgary, and the rest of the province. Right in the middle is Calgary, she noted. It is the sweet spot between what people are thinking in Edmonton and what they are thinking in the rest of the province. While Edmonton leans more progressive—all its ridings elected Alberta NDP MLAs in 2023—Calgary remains politically divided. In that election, the NDP won 14 of Calgary's 26 provincial districts, while the UCP captured 12.
Soft Separatists: The Key Group
Brown pointed to an extensive polling project conducted for CBC Calgary in April, which identified about 23 percent of Albertans as committed separatists—firmly locked in on separation—and another 11 percent as soft separatists, who are unhappy with Alberta's place in Canada but not entirely convinced separation is the answer. Soft separatists will be the most critical group moving forward, as separatist groups seek to broaden support and federalist campaigns work to contain separatist sentiment.
Campaigns have a way of changing the dynamic, Brown said. Right now it looks pretty static, but I do not discount the opportunity for effective communications to change it one way or the other.
Campaign Strategies
Lead, Not Leave, a policy initiative aiming to keep a strong Alberta within a united Canada, plans to roll out a series of policy proposals focused on strengthening Alberta's position within Confederation and addressing longstanding frustrations with Ottawa. Meanwhile, separatist groups are working to convert soft separatists and mobilize committed supporters.
The outcome, Brown concluded, will not be decided by those at the edges of the political spectrum, but by the people in the center—particularly in Calgary. Calgary needs to show up, she urged, as the city's voters hold the key to shaping Alberta's future.
