The dawn of 2026 brings little respite for Quebec Premier François Legault, whose government endured what one analyst describes as a "nightmare" 2025. A confluence of looming political and legal challenges threatens to further weaken his Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and raises profound questions about Legault's own future as premier.
A Perfect Storm of Political Troubles
The new year's difficulties begin with the impending final report from the Gallant inquiry into the SAAQclic fiasco, expected by February 13. The botched digital transformation of Quebec's automobile insurance board resulted in staggering cost overruns of half a billion dollars for taxpayers. During the inquiry, testimonies from several CAQ ministers, including Legault himself, proved deeply embarrassing, making it highly probable the government will be faulted for losing control of the project.
Simultaneously, the Quebec Liberal Party is poised for a leadership renewal. With Charles Milliard, the former president of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec, as the likely successor to Pablo Rodriguez, the official opposition could present a revitalized challenge. Milliard's status as a political outsider with significant economic credibility positions him to potentially reclaim the "party of the economy" mantle from Legault, whose reputation on that front has suffered due to persistent deficits and high-profile failures in Quebec's battery sector.
Constitutional and Electoral Landmines Ahead
Another critical uncertainty hangs over the CAQ: the Supreme Court of Canada's pending ruling on Bill 21, the province's contentious secularism law. Hearings will conclude early this year, with a decision expected later in 2026. If the court strikes down the law, it could trigger a major constitutional crisis just months before the next provincial election. Such a scenario is widely seen as advantageous for the Parti Québécois, which could leverage the ruling to bolster its sovereigntist platform.
The PQ's momentum is already palpable. The party is favoured to win an upcoming byelection in the riding of Chicoutimi, a seat the CAQ held comfortably in 2018 and 2022. A loss there would symbolize a significant erosion of the government's support in its traditional strongholds.
An Era Nearing Its End?
Despite the gathering storms, Premier Legault has publicly expressed his determination to lead the CAQ into the next election. However, political observers note that former federal Liberal leader Justin Trudeau displayed similar resolve before ultimately resigning under intense pressure in 2025. The central question for Quebec politics in 2026 is whether Legault retains the energy and, crucially, the unwavering support of his own caucus to navigate the turbulent year ahead.
With a relentless stream of bad news showing no sign of abating, the political landscape in Quebec is shifting. The combination of a damning inquiry report, a resurgent opposition, and a potential constitutional clash may well define 2026 as the year that marks the end of the Legault era.
