A new public opinion survey reveals the Progressive Conservatives under Premier Doug Ford would secure another election victory if a vote were held today, but the party's support is showing signs of erosion, particularly within the crucial Greater Toronto Area.
Provincial Polling Breakdown
The poll, conducted by Liaison Strategies between December 5 and 7, 2025, surveyed 1,000 Ontarians and has a margin of error of ±3.09%, 19 times out of 20. It found that among decided voters, 44% would re-elect the Ford PCs. The Ontario Liberals, who currently operate without a permanent leader, sit in second place with 35% support.
The New Democratic Party trails significantly at 16%, while the Green Party of Ontario holds 3% support. PC strength is concentrated outside the urban core, commanding over 48% support in eastern, southwestern, and south-central regions of the province.
GTA and Northern Ontario Shifts
The political landscape shifts dramatically within the 416 and 905 area codes. In the suburban 905 regions surrounding Toronto, the leaderless Liberals now lead the PCs 44% to 38%. Within Toronto itself (the 416), the Liberals hold a 45% to 40% advantage.
Northern Ontario also presents a challenge for the governing party, where Liberal support hits 40% compared to the PCs' 30%. David Valentin of Liaison Strategies noted the 905 figure represents a potential dramatic turnaround, advising caution until future surveys confirm the trend.
"The Toronto and Northern results are unsurprising, but the 905 figure would represent a dramatic turnaround given the PCs’ consistent lead there," Valentin stated.
Highway 401 Tunnel Faces Public Skepticism
The poll also gauged public sentiment on one of the Ford government's most ambitious and controversial proposals: a tunnel running underneath Highway 401 to alleviate congestion across the GTA. First announced in 2024, the proposed tunnel would stretch from Mississauga to the eastern GTA, possibly Markham.
Premier Ford has defended the concept, stating in September 2024 that the province is "growing too fast" and that such infrastructure is needed, citing data that GTA drivers spend an average of 98 hours annually stuck in rush-hour traffic. The province awarded a $9.1-million feasibility study to engineering firm WSP Canada Inc. in November 2024.
Despite the government's push, public opinion is lukewarm at best. The poll found that 45% of respondents oppose the tunnel project, while only 28% support it. Another 17% are neutral, and 10% are unsure.
When asked about provincial transportation spending priorities, only 6% identified the 401 tunnel as a top priority. The most popular choice, selected by 33% of respondents, was improving public transit in the GTA. Others preferred improving local roads and intersections (20%), widening existing highways (19%), or building new highways (12%).
The data suggests that while the Doug Ford government retains a province-wide lead, it faces headwinds in key urban and suburban regions and must contend with significant public skepticism toward its flagship transportation megaproject as it looks toward the future.
