A recent Postmedia-Leger poll has delivered a resounding defeat to Alberta separatist sentiments, with 68 percent of respondents indicating that Alberta should remain a province of Canada. Only 24 percent supported commencing a legal process for a binding referendum on independence, while the remainder were undecided or declined to answer. The poll, conducted from May 29 to June 1 among 1,014 Albertans, highlights strong support for staying within Confederation across demographics, though notably weaker among United Conservative Party (UCP) voters.
Strong Support for Staying in Canada
The numbers reveal that support for remaining in Canada is robust among men and even stronger among women. Across age groups, older Albertans show higher levels of support for the union. In Calgary, 68 percent favor staying in Canada versus 22 percent for separation. In Edmonton, the gap is even wider: 79 percent to 15 percent. In the rest of Alberta, support for remaining is 57 percent, while 35 percent favor independence.
Party Affiliation and Referendum Views
The poll underscores a sharp divide along party lines. A staggering 94 percent of New Democratic Party (NDP) voters support staying in Canada. Among UCP voters, only 44 percent share that view, while 48 percent favor a Yes/No vote on an independent Alberta. This suggests that the independence movement has found more traction within Premier Danielle Smith's own party base.
UCP Leads NDP in Voting Intentions
On the question of which party Albertans would support in a provincial election, the UCP leads the NDP by nine points among decided voters: 49 percent to 40 percent. Since April, the UCP has dropped four points while the NDP has gained four. The UCP leads in Calgary by nine points but trails in Edmonton by 21 points. In the rest of Alberta, the UCP holds a commanding 38-point lead.
Public Engagement and Understanding
About three-quarters of Albertans are following the separation debate at least somewhat closely, with nearly 90 percent of those aged 55 and older paying attention. However, roughly three in ten respondents feel they do not understand what Alberta leaving Canada would involve. This lack of clarity may influence the eventual outcome of the October referendum.
Premier Smith's Stance on Separation
Premier Danielle Smith has taken a firm stance against immediate separation, recently stating that the cost of establishing Alberta as an independent country would be around $400 billion. This comment, reported in this column, was seen as a political bombshell aimed at tempering separatist enthusiasm within her party and beyond.
The poll numbers provide a clear picture: while the independence movement has some support, especially among UCP voters, the majority of Albertans remain committed to Canada. The upcoming referendum on October 19 will be the ultimate test of these sentiments.
