If Arsenal finally win the Premier League by getting their hands on the trophy for the first time in 22 years, they should send a gift basket to Everton manager David Moyes.
While Moyes' boys blew a two-goal lead in the last five minutes against Manchester City last week, they still secured a draw and robbed two points from Pep Guardiola's team to put Arsenal in clear sight of the champions podium.
Arsenal's task couldn't be easier: Beat West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace, and they'll finish in first regardless of what Manchester City does. West Ham are 18th, Burnley 19th and Crystal Palace 15th. Hardly a murderers row.
Even with Arsenal making the Champions League final for just the second time in their history with their slender win over Atletico Madrid this week, Arsenal can afford major squad rotation in the last three games and should still pull it off against such moribund opposition.
The slim glimmer of hope that remains for City would appear to come this weekend. West Ham sit in the last relegation spot and will be desperate for anything out of the game. They fell into jeopardy after losing 3-0 to Brentford last week, allowing Spurs to leapfrog over them. Prior to that, the Hammers had two wins and draw. It is possible they could get at least a draw to open the door for City, but it would still be extremely unlikely.
Arsenal, famously, have crumbled when it mattered most over the last several seasons, constantly finishing second. While they've frittered away what looked like an insurmountable lead earlier this season, the lack of quality in the opposition in this home stretch suggests it would take something truly spectacular for them to throw this away at this point.
City had their chance and were even winning 1-0 at halftime at Everton, but gifted two sloppy goals to the Toffees and have no one to blame but themselves to hang their hopes on the Hammers.
While Guardiola's men from Manchester will be desperate for help, their path is hardly straightforward even if Arsenal falter. They have to get past Brentford this week, one of the form teams in the league. The Bees sit seventh with hopes to still qualify for European competition having lost just once in their past eight games. City will then have their game in hand made up Wednesday against Crystal Palace and then have to face roaring Bournemouth and Aston Villa in their last two matches.
In all honesty, Guardiola's squad lost this title with some terribly inconsistent form in the first half of the season as they integrated new pieces into the team. They also have looked tired and jaded after having partaken in the ludicrous Club World Cup last summer.
Stock Up
Bournemouth: Could we see the Cherries in the Champions League? Hold on, it's not that far-fetched. Bournemouth sit in sixth, six points out of the qualification spots, behind both Liverpool and Aston Villa. Liverpool looked dreadful last week losing to Manchester United and they play Chelsea, Aston Villa and Brentford to finish the season. The south-coast team have been on a tear, one of the best stories of the season. They lost three of their starting back four and their starting goalkeeper going into the season. They lost their best player, Antoine Semenyo, to an automatic buyout clause to Manchester City in January. Yet here they are, having not lost in their past fifteen matches. But here's the rub: They may not have to squeak past their rivals to get in. Aston Villa have been playing several second-stringers in the league as they're in the semifinals of the Europa League. Winning that cup brings automatic qualification to the Champions League. So if Villa and Liverpool hold on to fourth and fifth place, but Villa win the Europa League, Bournemouth could qualify for the most prestigious club tournament in the world and what a story that would be.
Nottingham Forest: Mathematically, Forest still need a point to be safe from relegation, but four wins and a draw in their past five have pulled them out of the muck. Beat Newcastle this weekend and they'd actually draw level with the Magpies and move up to 13th.
Tottenham: They beat a deliberately depleted Aston Villa last weekend to leapfrog West Ham and get out of the relegation spots and give new manager Roberto Di Zerbi two wins in a row. They finish with games against Leeds, reeling Chelsea and Everton, so it's possible they could still drop points. But a win this weekend and West Ham dropping points against Arsenal, and they can start to breathe a lot easier.
Stock Down
Everton: After building momentum to potentially push for Europe, they sit in 10th now after going winless in their past four with two draws and two losses. And while Arsenal were thrilled with the draw Everton secured against Manchester City, the two points they threw away by conceding twice in the dying moments of the game will likely cost them a shot at playing in one of the European competitions. Yes, it was Manchester City and, yes they were desperate, but no Premier League team should surrender a two-goal lead in injury time.
Liverpool: After surging to three wins a row, a trip to bitter rival Manchester United gave the Reds a chance to move ahead of them in the table and all but secure Champions League qualification. But they confounded everyone with a tepid, dreadful first half that saw them go into the locker room down 2-0. They fought back in the second half to draw level before taking the foot off the gas again and gave up a late goal to lose 3-2 and keep their qualification hopes in peril. Yes, they're missing their two first-choice goalkeepers, their top three forwards and three right backs. Injuries have been brutal on them, but they look mentally fragile, slow, tactically unaware and are so easily bullied. This weekend is a fascinating game. Chelsea go to Anfield having lost six in a row. Can Liverpool make it easy on themselves and put away a wounded, struggling Chelsea and give themselves breathing room with two games left after this weekend? They haven't made it easy on themselves all season so the answer is probably not.
Crisis Club
Chelsea: There's a sliver of hope if they beat Liverpool and other results go their way they could still qualify, but even a draw will all but extinguish their hopes of playing in the Champions League next season. Their best hope would be to win their last three and hope Villa win the Europa League, and they sneak into sixth. But since they sacked manager Enzo Maresca because he was flirting with Manchester City to succeed Guardiola, Chelsea have been an abject mess. Mentally fragile, tactically clueless and seemingly incapable of scoring, there's no easy fix. Since scoring four against Aston Villa in their most win on March 4, Chelsea have been blanked five times and got their lone goal in their past six matches. One goal in six games. Not what you'd expect from a club that has spent more than $2 billion on players in the past four years.
Read More: Will Arsenal be bridesmaids again? Perennial runners up have it all to play for on two fronts. Manchester City bathe in Oasis of hope after moving top of Premier League table.
This Week's Premier League Schedule
- Saturday: Liverpool vs Chelsea; Brighton vs Wolves; Fulham vs Bournemouth; Sunderland vs Manchester United; Manchester City vs Brentford.
- Sunday: Burnley vs Aston Villa; Crystal Palace vs Everton; Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle; West Ham vs Arsenal.
- Monday: Tottenham vs Leeds.
- Wednesday: Manchester City vs Crystal Palace.
