As the NFL's 2025-26 postseason kicks off, expert prognosticators are weighing in with their picks for the high-stakes Wild Card weekend. The lines, sourced from Covers.com, set the stage for several compelling matchups where home-field advantage and key player absences could be decisive factors.
Key Matchups and Point Spread Analysis
The weekend slate features several games where the point spread is a central talking point. The Los Angeles Rams are favoured by a significant 10.5 points over the Carolina Panthers, a line that reflects Carolina's stumble into the playoffs with a losing record. Analysts note that while the Rams lost in Carolina earlier this season, a repeat is considered unlikely, especially with the expected return of star receiver Davante Adams providing a major boost.
In another notable contest, the Green Bay Packers are slight 1-point favourites on the road against the Chicago Bears. The analysis points to several challenges for Chicago, including a quarterback making his first playoff start and a defence that leans heavily on generating turnovers. The difficulty of beating a team three times in one season also works against the Bears, who had some fortune in their two regular-season wins over Green Bay.
The marquee underdog pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Perhaps the most intriguing pick of the weekend is the Jacksonville Jaguars as 1-point underdogs at home against the Buffalo Bills. The rationale hinges on Jacksonville's strong performance since their bye week, a surge credited in part to the addition of receiver Jakobi Meyers revitalizing the passing game.
More intangibly, the Jaguars are seen as harnessing a powerful "nobody believes in us" mentality. This contrasts sharply with the narrative surrounding Buffalo, where expectations are high for quarterback Josh Allen to finally lead a Super Bowl run, especially with other traditional AFC powerhouses eliminated. The pick suggests that football remains a team game, and the Bills' defence may not be robust enough to contain Jacksonville's momentum and support Allen's efforts.
Additional Wild Card Weekend Forecasts
Other games drawing sharp analysis include the Philadelphia Eagles laying 4.5 points against the San Francisco 49ers. Despite Philadelphia's offensive struggles this season, the pick criticizes the 49ers' inability to get crucial defensive stops, while the Eagles' defence should match up well against stars like Christian McCaffrey.
The Los Angeles Chargers are picked to cover as 3.5-point underdogs in New England, citing the experience of a playoff veteran quarterback against a Top 2 MVP candidate making his first postseason start. The Patriots, who coasted through a soft schedule, are expected to face their first real test.
Finally, the Pittsburgh Steelers are highlighted as home underdogs getting 3 points against Houston. Two compelling trends support Pittsburgh: an impressive 23-game consecutive home winning streak on Monday nights and head coach Mike Tomlin's strong historical record as a home underdog. While the Texans' defence is formidable, their offensive efficiency has reportedly declined in recent weeks.
The analyst's record from the previous week was 5-11-0, bringing the season total to 121-143-8. For fans looking to stream all the action, the global sports service DAZN offers live and on-demand coverage accessible from smart TVs, laptops, mobiles, and tablets.
