CIBC Capital Markets Boosts Gold Forecast to US$6,000 for 2026
In a bold move that defies recent market turbulence, CIBC Capital Markets has significantly raised its price target for gold to US$6,000 per ounce for 2026, up from a previous estimate of US$4,500. This adjustment comes despite a sharp 15% decline in bullion prices early this week, driven by extreme volatility in the precious metals market.
Analysts Point to Sustained Demand Drivers and Geopolitical Factors
A team of analysts led by Anita Soni emphasized in a recent note that the same demand drivers that propelled gold prices 65% higher in 2025 are expected to persist throughout the current year. "We expect the same demand drivers from 2025 to remain in place," the analysts stated, highlighting ongoing economic and political uncertainties.
The recent price plunge, which saw gold drop below US$5,000, was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair by former U.S. President Donald Trump. Warsh is perceived as hawkish, potentially strengthening the U.S. dollar and inversely affecting gold prices, as the two typically move in opposite directions.
Long-Term Projections and Market Context
Looking further ahead, CIBC has set ambitious long-term targets:
- US$6,500 per ounce for 2027
- US$6,000 for 2028
- Gradual pullbacks to US$5,500 in 2029, US$5,000 in 2030, and US$4,500 in 2031
As of Wednesday, gold was trading around US$4,900, having rebounded above the US$5,000 threshold. This contrasts with the median analyst forecast of US$4,400 for the first quarter of 2026, as tracked by Bloomberg, while the forward price stands at US$5,044.
Geopolitical Turmoil Fuels Gold's Meteoric Rise
CIBC analysts attribute the dramatic 40% surge in gold prices at the start of the year—from US$4,020 to US$5,600—to a highly eventful January. Key events included:
- The capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces
- Threats of U.S. aggression against Greenland
- Further warnings from Trump regarding increased tariffs and sanctions
"We see heightened geopolitical uncertainty, largely originating from the ever-changing U.S. tariff policies and increased aggression towards countries that stand in the way of Trump's objectives," the analysts noted. They also anticipate pressure on the U.S. dollar from interest rate cuts and the ongoing de-dollarization trade.
CIBC Joins Other Financial Institutions in Bullish Gold Calls
CIBC is not alone in its optimistic outlook. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. previously forecasted gold reaching US$6,000 in 2026, with a potential peak of US$12,000 per ounce due to global supply-demand imbalances. Similarly, JPMorgan Chase & Co. recently increased its gold forecast from US$5,055 to US$6,300, while Deutsche Bank AG reaffirmed its US$6,000 target.
Investment Strategies for Gold Exposure
Beyond price predictions, CIBC has provided specific stock recommendations for investors seeking exposure to precious metals:
Large Cap Picks:
- Agnico Eagle Ltd. (AEM:TSX)
- Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX)
- Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS:TSX)
- Franco Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX)
Other Recommendations:
- Iamgold Corp. (IMG:TSX)
- G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN:TSX)
- Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI)
- Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA:TSX)
- Discovery Silver Corp. (DSV:TSX)
Additionally, CIBC upgraded its ratings on Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX:TSX) and Endeavour Mining PLC (EDV:TSX) to outperform, signaling confidence in these companies' potential amid the evolving gold market landscape.
