Analysts Doubt Thousands Will Accept Rogers Buyout Offer
Analysts Doubt Thousands Will Accept Rogers Buyout

Rogers Communications Inc. has announced that it is offering voluntary buyout packages to approximately half of its workforce as part of a cost-cutting initiative. However, analysts express skepticism that a significant number of eligible employees will accept the offer.

Scope of the Buyout Program

The telecom giant is granting voluntary departure and retirement programs to about 50% of its staff, excluding employees at Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE), the Toronto Blue Jays, Sportsnet, on-air talent, and unionized workers. According to the company's 2025 annual report, Rogers had 25,000 active employees last year, including roughly 3,000 at MLSE, leaving around 10,000 employees eligible for the buyout.

Analyst Perspectives

National Bank analyst Adam Shine noted that initial reports suggested the buyout could involve up to 11,000 employees, but he considers a high take-up rate unlikely. "Rogers has done voluntary programs in the past, with the scale/uptake of these always well below what's otherwise being implied," Shine wrote in a note to clients. He referenced a 2025 Mercer report indicating that the average voluntary turnover rate for Canadian companies offering buyout packages is only 10.2%.

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Shine also highlighted Shaw's 2018 buyout program, which targeted about 6,500 of its 14,000 employees. While the company expected a 10% uptake, the actual number was over five times that estimate, with 3,300 employees (51% of those eligible) accepting. However, Shine cautioned that the Shaw program may not be directly comparable to Rogers' current approach.

Industry Context

Desjardins analyst Jerome Dubreuil described Rogers' buyout offer as one of the largest telecom workforce reductions. He noted that while details on the attractiveness of the packages remain unknown, extending voluntary departure programs to half the workforce is significant. "It is unfortunate to see the industry in conditions where such actions are warranted, but we view management's commitment to adjust its cost base to the current challenging environment positively," Dubreuil wrote.

Dubreuil also pointed out that Shaw's 2018 buyout led to short-term operational risks and share price underperformance but ultimately resulted in improved profitability. The current industry-wide slowdown has prompted Rogers to take this step, though the final impact on its workforce and finances remains uncertain.

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