In an unpredictable world where national defence is at stake, being involved in the production process is crucial. For Canada to have a robust and sovereign capacity to support submarines over decades of service, participation in production from the outset is essential.
Defence Procurement Challenges
One reason defence procurement is so difficult is that every decision sits at the intersection of conflicting strategic priorities for government. Politics and economics cannot be easily excluded, despite potential desires. Overlaying a new strategy for building defence industrial capacity and a new organization to sort through this increases difficulty exponentially.
The Canadian Patrol Submarine Project
This is where we find ourselves with the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP). Bids from Hanwha Ocean (South Korea) and TKMS (Germany) closed after a three-week extension to get more "value for Canada" from bidders. Value takes many forms: more capability, lower price, direct or indirect benefits. Here, it appears focused on offsets (indirect benefits) to make the deal more lucrative. Time will tell what this means for Canadian taxpayers.
The good news is either submarine and associated partnerships will be great for Canada. Both are state-of-the-art, and offsets will be impressive. The bad news is that in pursuing relief for economic and political problems, we might have missed opportunities to build resilience and domestic capacity explicit in Prime Minister Mark Carney's language and the Defence Industrial Strategy.
Missed Opportunities in Advanced Manufacturing
I fear we are squandering real opportunities in advanced manufacturing by not being part of submarine production. This approach appears intentional, based on simplistic and self-defeating arguments that doing so would be too risky for schedule and cost. Behind the scenes, Canada has sent mixed messages, showing no interest in significant Canadian industry participation in submarine production. Some may see this as good, but if we focus on short-term benefits at the expense of long-term ambition, we will never stand on our own two feet. The decision seems myopic and conflicts with Carney's statements. There is a disconnect; in the complexity of intersecting interests, we are not appreciating the full implications of pursuing one interest at the expense of another.
