Canadian Housing Market Gains Momentum Through Fall
Canada's real estate sector is displaying encouraging signs of stabilization as home sales recorded their sixth monthly increase in the past seven months. According to recent data from National Bank of Canada Capital Markets, residential property transactions climbed nearly one percent from September to October, suggesting a potential turning point for the national housing market.
Provincial Markets Show Mixed Results
The recovery pattern varies significantly across provinces, creating a fragmented national landscape. Newfoundland led all regions with an impressive 7.9 percent monthly sales increase, closely followed by Prince Edward Island at 7.7 percent. Alberta also posted solid gains, with home sales rising approximately two percent from September levels.
However, not all markets shared in the October upswing. Manitoba experienced the sharpest decline among provinces, with sales falling five percent month-over-month. Saskatchewan followed with a four percent decrease, while Ontario saw a more modest decline of less than one percent.
Balanced Market Conditions Emerge
Despite the fluctuating sales figures, the overall Canadian housing market appears to be reaching equilibrium. New listings declined slightly by just over one percent in October, while inventory levels held steady at 4.4 months of supply - indicating a balanced market between buyers and sellers.
National Bank analysts noted that while Ontario and British Columbia continue to experience softer demand conditions, most other provinces maintain markets that still favor sellers to varying degrees.
Year-Over-Year Perspective Reveals Challenges
When viewed through a longer-term lens, the market recovery appears more tentative. National sales activity in October remained approximately four percent below levels recorded during the same month last year. Only two provinces managed year-over-year gains: Quebec saw sales increase nearly eight percent, while Nova Scotia posted a modest one percent improvement.
Alberta experienced the most significant annual decline among provinces, with sales falling nearly 11 percent compared to October 2024. British Columbia followed with a ten percent decrease year-over-year, highlighting the ongoing adjustment in previously hot markets.
The consistent monthly gains through most of 2025 suggest Canada's housing market may be establishing a new equilibrium after the volatility of recent years. However, the mixed provincial performance and overall year-over-year declines indicate the recovery remains fragile and uneven across different regions of the country.
