Canada's largest real estate markets may be approaching a turning point, even though overall resale activity remained flat in April, according to a new report from RBC Economics. The report highlights that Toronto experienced a six per cent increase in resales from March to April, with year-over-year sales growing by seven per cent. This has led RBC to suggest that Toronto and other major Ontario markets, such as Hamilton, "could be finally turning around."
National Trends Remain Subdued
Across Canada, resale activity rose by less than one per cent month over month in April and was down four per cent compared to the same period last year. However, the report notes a positive sign: more homes are being listed, with a month-over-month increase of more than four per cent. Still, this largely mirrors supply levels from April of the previous year.
Buyer's Markets Persist in Major Cities
Despite Toronto's sales improvements, the city remained a buyer's market in April, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 35 per cent. Vancouver also favoured buyers, with a ratio of 33 per cent. A ratio below 40 per cent is considered a buyer's market, while above 60 per cent indicates a seller's market. No major Canadian city exceeded the 60 per cent threshold, according to RBC's findings.
All major markets saw month-over-month increases in new listings. However, year-over-year declines were observed in Calgary (-2.6 per cent), Vancouver (-3.2 per cent), and Toronto (-9.3 per cent). Nationally, new listings were flat year over year.
Price Trends Vary Across Regions
Montreal was the only major city to post a year-over-year increase in the MLS Home Price Index, with average prices growing nearly four per cent. In contrast, Vancouver's index fell by nearly seven per cent, and Toronto's prices dropped by about 6.5 per cent year over year.
RBC cautioned that while April showed "green shoots" of potential future growth, the current slump could persist if "gloom arising from geopolitical events" continues to weigh on market sentiment.
