The new year has ushered in a series of modest increases to some of Canada's most competitive default-insured mortgage rates, according to industry analyst Robert McLister. While the lowest nationally advertised rates have ticked upward, the changes are described as measured and not a cause for alarm for prospective homebuyers or those renewing their mortgages.
Key Rate Movements in Early January
Data from early January 2026 shows specific movements in the advertised rate landscape. The lowest nationally available two-year fixed rate climbed by 20 basis points to 3.99%, as offered by True North Mortgage. Meanwhile, the cheapest three-year fixed rate saw a more modest increase of five basis points, reaching 3.89% through Citadel Mortgage.
Regional Deals Offer Significant Opportunities
Despite the slight upward trend at the national level, McLister points out that numerous attractive regional deals remain available across the country. These offers provide significant savings for qualified borrowers, particularly those with insured mortgages.
Notable regional rates include:
- A five-year fixed rate of 3.69% from Ratebuzz in Ontario (insured only).
- A five-year variable rate of 3.39%, also from Ratebuzz in Ontario (insured only).
- Butler Mortgage's three-year fixed at 3.64% in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario (insured only).
- Coast Capital's three-year fixed at 3.84% and five-year fixed at 3.94% in British Columbia.
- Access Credit Union's variable rate of 3.45% in Manitoba.
Market Outlook and Considerations for Borrowers
Looking ahead, McLister notes that derivatives markets are currently pricing in approximately 100 basis points of interest rate hikes over the next five years. This forward-looking data suggests that medium- to longer-term fixed rates may offer greater protection against future increases, especially when paired with favourable prepayment penalties and flexible refinancing terms from lenders.
However, the analyst adds a crucial caveat, reminding readers that unforeseen global events could rapidly alter the economic landscape and interest rate trajectory. "One well-timed global crisis could flip this whole outlook upside down," McLister writes, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of broader economic forces.
In the immediate term, he advises borrowers to monitor upcoming Canadian and U.S. jobs reports, as strong employment data could influence the mortgage rates available in the coming days. Robert McLister, a recognized mortgage strategist and editor of MortgageLogic.news, provides this analysis to help Canadians navigate the evolving lending environment at the start of 2026.
