The bustling spring housing market across Canada may be experiencing a cooling trend this year, but Calgary could be an exception due to rising oil prices triggered by geopolitical tensions. While recent data shows slower March resales, fewer listings, and declining prices in many regions, Calgary's market might receive an unexpected boost from the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Geopolitical Events and Local Impact
The outbreak of war in Iran in early March has led to an unprecedented oil supply crunch, sending prices soaring over recent weeks. This development, while creating affordability challenges for prospective homebuyers in much of Canada due to higher costs, often has the opposite effect in Calgary, according to local real estate experts.
Historical Patterns in Calgary Real Estate
Richard Fleming, a realtor with Re/Max Real Estate Mountain View in Calgary with 40 years of experience, observes a clear correlation between energy prices and housing activity. "I've always said that when the prices at the gas pumps are low, real estate struggles in the city," Fleming notes. "Conversely, when gas prices are high, Calgary real estate performs exceptionally well."
This relationship stems from Calgary's economic ties to the energy sector, where higher oil prices typically translate to increased employment, wages, and confidence among local buyers.
Current Market Conditions
Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with the Calgary Real Estate Board, acknowledges that gasoline prices have risen in Calgary but cautions that it remains uncertain whether this will directly translate into heightened home demand. "We don't face the same economic challenges as other markets because of higher oil prices," Lurie explains, highlighting Calgary's unique position within the national landscape.
March resale market statistics from CREB do not yet show significant effects from the recent oil price increase. Resales declined nearly 13 percent year over year, while the total residential benchmark price fell more than four percent to $565,600. Simultaneously, new listings dropped over 15 percent, indicating fewer sellers entered the market compared to March 2025. Despite this, inventory—homes available at month's end—grew by almost five percent.
A Tale of Two Housing Segments
Lurie emphasizes that beneath the broad market data lies a story of divergence between housing types. "The overall market is balanced," she says, "but conditions vary significantly, ranging from favoring sellers in the detached home segment to favoring buyers in the apartment category."
Despite increased demand, resales for single-family detached homes fell five percent year over year in March, with the benchmark price declining three percent to $741,300. In contrast, the apartment market fared worse, with sales plummeting 29 percent and the benchmark price dropping nine percent to $300,300.
Fleming adds bluntly, "The condo market, in the best terminology, 'stinks.' The single-family market, however, is performing very well, with sales improving each week as we move deeper into spring."
Regional Variations and Affordability
Demand for single-family detached homes continues to be heavily influenced by affordability, driven by regional availability. Lurie points out that the supply of mid-range housing products, or the lack thereof, can create differing conditions across various areas of Calgary. This segmentation means that while some neighborhoods may experience seller-friendly conditions, others could remain more balanced or even favor buyers.
As the spring season progresses, all eyes will be on whether the surge in oil prices, fueled by the Iran conflict, will indeed add heat to Calgary's housing market. While other Canadian cities may face headwinds from the same geopolitical events, Calgary's energy-centric economy could turn these challenges into opportunities for growth in its real estate sector.
