Air traffic from Canada to the United States experienced a sharp decline in February 2026, with passenger numbers falling by nearly 30% compared to the same month in the previous year, according to recent data from Statistics Canada. This marks the 13th consecutive month of year-over-year decreases, highlighting a sustained shift in travel patterns amidst ongoing trade tensions between the two nations.
Persistent Decline in Transborder Travel
Statistics Canada's airport screening data, released on Tuesday, revealed that air traffic to the U.S. dropped by 10.2% in February 2026 from February 2025. In raw numbers, only one million screened passengers traveled south of the border via Canadian airports during that month. The agency noted that this continues a "notable change in travel patterns amid trade tensions with the United States," which began over a year ago when U.S. President Donald Trump started threatening Canada with tariffs.
Transborder counts for February 2026 were well below, at a 12.0% decrease, compared to the same month in 2024, before such tensions escalated. This data underscores how geopolitical factors are influencing consumer behavior and travel decisions.
Impact on Major Airports
All eight of Canada's largest airports reported year-over-year declines in transborder traffic for February. The most significant reductions were concentrated at the four largest hubs: Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, and Calgary. Together, these airports account for more than 90% of all such traffic, indicating a widespread trend across the country's aviation network.
In February, passengers flying to the U.S. made up only 24.2% of the total number of screened passengers, which represents a 27.2% decline from February 2025. This shift suggests that Canadians are increasingly opting for alternative destinations or modes of travel.
Growth in Domestic and International Flights
While transborder travel dwindled, other segments of air travel showed robust growth. Domestic traffic remained strong, with 1.8 million passengers in February, up 5.3% year over year. All eight largest airports posted increases in domestic flights, reflecting a healthy demand for travel within Canada.
International flights to destinations outside the U.S. also saw a rise, with 1.4 million passengers in February, representing a 5.1% increase from the previous year. This growth indicates that travelers are seeking alternatives to U.S. destinations, possibly due to the trade uncertainties or other factors.
Overall Passenger Trends
Overall, 4.2 million passengers were screened at Canada's eight largest airports in February, up 1% from a year ago. This modest overall increase masks the divergent trends between transborder travel and other flight categories.
The data points to a complex landscape where domestic and international travel are thriving even as U.S.-bound trips face continued challenges. As trade tensions persist, these patterns may continue to evolve, impacting airlines, airports, and the broader tourism industry.
