Canada's Minister for Canada-U.S. Trade, Dominic LeBlanc, likened the deep economic integration between Canada, the United States, and Mexico to an omelette that cannot be unscrambled, stressing the importance of renewing the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) ahead of a critical review deadline.
Crude Oil Exports at the Heart of Trade Ties
In 2025, Canadian crude oil exports to the United States reached a record value of $127.37 billion, according to the Annual Trade Summary. In 2024, crude oil exports averaged 4.20 million barrels per day, with an additional 750,000 barrels per day from the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which began operations in May 2024. These figures underscore the central role of oil sands exports in the bilateral trade relationship.
On July 1, 2026, Canada, Mexico, and the United States will decide whether to extend CUSMA until 2042, six years beyond its current expiry in 2036. LeBlanc warned that failure to extend would not be due to Canadian or Mexican resistance, but could result from unresolved bilateral issues.
LeBlanc: 'It's Like Trying to Unscramble an Omelette'
“If there is no extension … it’s not because Canada or Mexico was resisting,” LeBlanc said in an interview with Postmedia after a visit to Fort McMurray on June 23, where he met with business leaders at the Fort McMurray Chamber of Commerce. He emphasized that the agreement has benefited all three economies, calling the oil trade from Fort McMurray a prime example of mutually beneficial economic partnership.
“It’s like trying to unscramble an omelette,” LeBlanc said, stressing that the agreement is not a one-way street. “Oil trade from Fort McMurray is an example of that economic partnership that has benefitted the American and Canadian economy.”
Suncor and the Local Workforce Shift
LeBlanc spent the morning with Suncor Energy, headquartered in Alberta with its largest base plant in Fort McMurray. Suncor refines up to 65% of its oil production in Canada, making it one of the largest Canadian petroleum retailers and a major employer in the region. The company is implementing a local residency mandate, phasing out approximately 200 contractor positions from company-provided work camps at its Fort McMurray Base Plant and Syncrude operations.
This shift reflects a broader trend away from fly-in, fly-out (FIFO) workers, who have long been attracted by premium wages but can hollow out local economic growth. LeBlanc noted that discussions with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer could influence how companies like Suncor manage their transient workforce.
“Greer has scheduled some meetings next week to discuss some technical things that the US would like to deal with bilaterally,” LeBlanc said, indicating that the outcome of these talks could determine next steps for businesses.
Historical Reliance on FIFO Workers Diminishing
For decades, oilsands companies relied on FIFO workers in rotational camps, but the economic drawbacks—such as reduced local spending and community development—have prompted a shift. Suncor's local residency mandate is part of a broader effort to strengthen Fort McMurray's economy. The transition away from camp-based workforces could reshape the region's labor market and reduce dependence on temporary workers.
LeBlanc underscored the national importance of renewing CUSMA, given the deep economic integration among the three countries. Canada and Mexico have already expressed interest in continuing the agreement, and LeBlanc said discussions are ongoing with Greer to address U.S. concerns.
