Iran's Islamic Republic is confronting a confluence of crises that analysts warn could threaten its survival, with a severe water shortage acting as a potent catalyst for widespread public anger. The situation draws stark parallels to the conditions that led to the fall of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979.
Historical Parallels to a Falling Dynasty
In his book King of Kings, author Scott Anderson detailed the catastrophic mix of failures that precipitated the Iranian Revolution. He cited U.S. hubris, ignorance, and incompetence, matched by Iranian corruption, inequality, and a leader blind to the coming storm. Today, the U.S. administration is far more informed, but the Iranian leadership under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei faces a similar outbreak of societal rage.
Khamenei, in power for 36 years, is described as both as autocratic and, if anything, more ruthless than the last Shah. The current unrest is fueled by a collapsing economy, deep social divisions, and rampant corruption, uniting disparate groups through shared hatred of the leadership.
The Tap Runs Dry: A Prosaic Trigger for Revolt
While the 1979 revolt had a unifying figure in Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, no single leader has yet emerged to challenge Khamenei directly. A key driver of modern discontent is not political or religious, but elemental: Iran is running out of water.
This summer, the 10 million residents of Tehran were warned they might have to evacuate due to the regime's inability to guarantee running water and sanitation. While environmentalists point to six years of drought, Iran has historically managed arid conditions through ancient qanat tunnel systems. The current crisis is largely man-made.
Corruption and Mismanagement Drain the Reservoirs
The critical difference today is corruption and gross official mismanagement of water resources. After the 1979 revolution, the new regime embarked on a massive dam-building spree, with many projects linked to the commercial interests of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Since the revolution, as many as 600 dams have been built, compared to fewer than 20 before. Today, many are nearly empty. Five dams serving Tehran are at just 5-10% capacity, unable to meet demand. Satellite imagery shows Lake Urmia, once the Middle East's largest lake, almost completely dry.
Officials have diverted water far beyond sustainable levels from rivers like the Karun, reducing its flow to less than a quarter of its original capacity. A significant portion of this water supports large-scale industrial operations tied to the IRGC, with 90% destined for water-intensive agriculture aimed at national food self-sufficiency.
The regime's failure to provide this most basic resource underscores a broader failure of governance. As with the Shah before him, Khamenei's government is proving that a regime that cannot keep the taps running may not survive the rising tide of public fury.
