The Ottawa-Carleton District School Board (OCDSB) is projecting a decline in student enrolment for the 2026-2027 academic year, while the Ottawa Catholic School Board anticipates an increase, according to recent reports.
Enrolment Projections
Elementary enrolment at the OCDSB is expected to drop by 766 students, and secondary enrolment by 338 students, as outlined in a report to the board's audit committee. In response, the board plans to cut 83 teacher positions. Adult students over 21, previously counted in secondary enrolment, will be moved to the Continuing Education Day School model, affecting about 20 of those positions.
Stephanie Kirkey, president of the teachers bargaining unit of the Ontario Secondary School Teachers Federation, expressed disappointment in the board's decision. She noted that the restructuring has impacted approximately 20 of the 83 teacher positions being eliminated.
Factors Behind the Decline
The report attributes the lower enrolment projections to several factors, including a decrease in birth rates, parents choosing to keep kindergarten-aged children at home, fewer international students, and a decline in immigration. These trends are consistent with many other Ontario school boards, according to the report.
Catholic Board Growth
In contrast, the Ottawa Catholic School Board projects an increase of 577 secondary students and 856 elementary students. Notable growth is expected at specific high schools, such as All Saints in Kanata (185 more students), St. Matthew in Orléans (92 more), and Immaculata (91 more).
Funding and Staffing Implications
Most provincial funding is tied to average daily enrolment, meaning a drop in enrolment leads to reduced funding and staffing cuts. Boards must submit enrolment estimates to the Ministry of Education by the end of June, with revisions after September. Overly optimistic projections can create funding gaps; for instance, in 2023, the OCDSB faced a $15 million gap between expected and actual enrolment out of a $1.1 billion budget. When enrolment is lower than projected, teachers and students are often reassigned, leading to split classes and staff relocations.
Supervision and Perception
The OCDSB has been under provincial supervision since last June. Donna Blackburn, an elected trustee who opposed supervision, suggested that uncertainty at the OCDSB is driving families to view the Catholic board as a more stable option. She acknowledged that comparing the two boards is like comparing apples and oranges but believes the OCDSB is losing students to the Catholic board.
