Political analysts are sounding alarms for Republicans as new data reveals a substantial Democratic advantage in voter enthusiasm that could dramatically impact the 2026 midterm elections.
The Enthusiasm Gap: Democrats Show Stronger Voting Intent
CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten unveiled what he called the "hidden Democratic advantage" during a Thursday analysis segment. The key finding: Democrats are demonstrating significantly higher certainty about voting compared to their Republican counterparts.
Recent Marquette University Law School polling provides the evidence behind this concerning trend for Republicans. While Democrats maintain a +5 point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, this lead expands dramatically to +9 points when focusing exclusively on voters who are certain to cast ballots.
Historical Shift in Midterm Dynamics
Enten emphasized the gravity of these numbers for Republican prospects. "These numbers should be truly frightening to Republicans," he stated, noting that the Marquette findings align with other polls showing "huge Democratic enthusiasm" building ahead of the midterms.
The analyst highlighted the significance of this enthusiasm shift, pointing out that Democrats being more likely to vote represents a dramatic change from the previous five midterm cycles where Republicans consistently held the voter certainty advantage.
"What this suggests is Democrats are far more likely to turn out at this point," Enten explained. "A nine-point advantage ― going from 5 to 9 ― that is A+, two thumbs up, great news for Democrats."
Recent Election Results Support Polling Trends
Further compounding Republican concerns are recent electoral outcomes that polling underestimated. Enten pointed to Democratic victories in 2025 that exceeded expectations, including New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill's +8 point win and Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger's +5 point victory.
The combination of these actual voting results with the current Marquette University poll numbers creates what Enten describes as a perfect storm for Republican anxiety. "Republicans should be running scared," he concluded. "Democrats should be ecstatic because if this polling holds, it will be a huge November 2026 for Democrats."
This early-cycle enthusiasm gap could signal a fundamental shift in midterm election dynamics, potentially reversing a decade-long pattern of Republican voter engagement advantages during non-presidential election years.
