Democrats Demonstrating Unprecedented Electoral Strength in Current Cycle
CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten made a striking revelation on Wednesday, presenting evidence that Democrats are achieving historically strong performance in the 2025-26 election cycle. According to Enten, the party is experiencing success levels not witnessed in nearly a decade or more, signaling a substantial political shift.
Wisconsin Supreme Court Victory Signals Major Shift
Enten highlighted the dramatic leftward movement following liberal candidate Chris Taylor's triumph in Tuesday's Wisconsin Supreme Court race. This victory coincided with Democratic candidate Shawn Harris delivering better-than-anticipated results in the Georgia special election for a U.S. House seat. "Holy Toledo, holy smokes, holy cow," exclaimed the data chief, capturing the magnitude of these developments.
In Wisconsin, Taylor surpassed Kamala Harris' 2024 vote margin in the state by an impressive 21 percentage points. Enten emphasized that Taylor's win represents the most significant open-seat victory for a liberal candidate in over three decades, marking a pivotal moment in recent political history.
Pattern of Democratic Overperformance Across States
Enten argued that the Wisconsin outcome is part of a broader pattern of success for left-leaning candidates. He pointed to Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat who outperformed Harris in the state by 10 points during the gubernatorial election last November. Similarly, New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill, also a Democrat, exceeded the former vice president's margin in her state's gubernatorial contest by 8 points during the previous year.
These figures are particularly noteworthy when compared to historical data. Enten stressed that the current margins are "even better" than those from the 2017-18 election cycle. During that period, Democratic and liberal candidates in Wisconsin, Virginia, and New Jersey races outperformed Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin by 12, 4, and less than 1 points respectively. Democrats subsequently gained control of the U.S. House in the 2018 midterm elections, suggesting potential parallels for the current political landscape.
Georgia Special Election Adds to Momentum
Later in his analysis, Enten turned attention to special House elections from 2025 onward, where Democrats have consistently outperformed Kamala Harris' margins in their states by double digits. Although Shawn Harris ultimately lost to Trump-backed candidate Clay Fuller in the race to replace former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia, he remarkably outran Harris' 2024 margin by 25 points.
This performance marked the most substantial overachievement by a Democrat in a special congressional election since former Senator Doug Jones of Alabama secured victory in 2017. "My goodness gracious! That beat all the other Democratic overperformances. And they've overperformed in all of them," Enten remarked regarding Harris' results. "So, we're even getting higher than the highest of heights."
The cumulative evidence from these races suggests a potentially straightforward path for Democrats to reclaim the U.S. House, according to Enten's analysis. The consistent pattern of exceeding previous electoral benchmarks across multiple states and election types indicates a robust and sustained Democratic advantage as the 2025-26 cycle progresses.
