In a dramatic reversal that has major implications for Canada's political stability, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May announced on Monday, November 17, 2025, that she will support Prime Minister Mark Carney's federal budget. This decision effectively prevents the minority Liberal government from falling and averts a snap election that could have sent Canadians to the polls during the holiday season.
A Pivotal Commitment on Climate Change
The turning point came during a rare direct exchange in the House of Commons, where May challenged the Prime Minister on the budget's failure to explicitly mention Canada's international emissions reduction targets. Carney responded with a clear oral commitment, stating, "I can confirm to this House that we will respect our Paris commitments for climate change, and we’re determined to achieve them."
May revealed that this assurance was the decisive factor, stating, "Without what I heard from the Prime Minister today, I would have voted 'no.'" She had previously declared her intention to vote against the budget as written but was open to negotiation. The oral pledge to uphold the Paris Agreement goals proved sufficient for her support.
The Weight of Public Opinion and Political Calculus
May's decision was also influenced by her constituents. She reported hearing "overwhelmingly" from them that they did not want an election to happen by "accident." Acknowledging the potential political risk, she added a reflective note: "Maybe I’m a fool. I’ll leave that for history to decide. But I did what I thought was right."
This single vote carries immense weight. The minority Liberals hold 170 seats but can only reliably count on 169 votes because Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia, serving as House Speaker, only votes to break a tie. With May's support, the government's voting power returns to 170.
A Tense Evening Vote Awaits
All political attention is now focused on the House of Commons for the third and final confidence vote on the budget's main motion, scheduled for approximately 6:45 p.m. The outcome will determine the immediate future of the government.
The opposition benches collectively hold 172 votes. The Bloc Québécois has confirmed its 22 MPs will vote against the budget. The NDP's position remained uncertain as of Monday morning. The party's seven MPs held a caucus meeting to decide their stance, with possibilities ranging from a unified vote to a split decision or even abstentions. NDP leadership candidate Heather McPherson declined to reveal her intended vote.
If the budget passes, parliamentary business will continue uninterrupted. If it is defeated, Canada will be thrust into its second federal election of the year, a scenario that now seems to have been narrowly avoided thanks to a last-minute climate policy assurance.
