Liberals Extend Lead Over Conservatives in Recent National Poll
As Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre focuses on building support internationally, his Conservative Party continues to struggle domestically against the Mark Carney Liberals, according to new polling data released this week.
Polling Numbers Show Significant Liberal Advantage
The latest survey from Liaison Strategies, published on Monday, indicates that the Mark Carney Liberals command a substantial 14 percentage point lead over the Conservatives. Specifically, 45% of respondents expressed support for the Liberals if an election were held today.
In contrast, the Conservatives trail with 31% support. The federal NDP follows in a distant third place at 8%, just ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 6%. The People’s Party of Canada and the Green Party round out the results with 4% and 3% support, respectively.
The Carney Effect and Regional Dynamics
David Valentin, principal of Liaison Strategies, attributed the Prime Minister's surge in support to the Carney effect, a trend that began after Carney's January speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. However, Valentin noted that this momentum is starting to soften slightly.
Particularly notable is the Liberal strength in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, which remains the bedrock of their current lead, Valentin emphasized. While Mark Carney's approval rating remains high at 63%, there has been a minor decline, with his disapproval rating increasing by two points to 33%.
Carney's highest approval ratings come from the Atlantic provinces, where 70% of respondents approve of his performance. This is two points higher than in Ontario and seven points ahead of Quebec.
Challenges for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives
On the other hand, Pierre Poilievre continues to face difficulties in broadening his appeal among Canadians. His favourability has increased slightly to 38%, but his unfavourability remains stubbornly high at 52%, down from 54% previously.
Valentin highlighted that the 14-point gap between Poilievre's favourability and unfavourability underscores the significant hurdle the Conservatives must overcome as they progress further into 2026.
Poll Methodology and Details
The poll was conducted between March 2 and March 14, involving a random sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. The data was weighted to align with targets from the 2021 census, and it carries a margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
This survey reflects ongoing political shifts in Canada, with the Liberals maintaining a firm lead despite some softening in Carney's approval numbers, while the Conservatives work to regain ground in a challenging electoral landscape.
